RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. AJ Auxerre: O/U 4.5

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 72¢ · $17K held · ended Nov 1

Over28¢Under72¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$16.6K

Combined PnL

$906.88

Smart Money Entry

80.9¢ → 72¢

-11% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 72%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 9 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over28%

Under72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$16.5K

Total Shares17,595

Combined PnL+$900.78

Over3 traders

Total Value$11.82

Total Shares81

Combined PnL+$6.09

Under — 67%Over — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Under 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x127e88ca7f26b32be5ff2b005c5478cbd3833dd8	Underavg 80.3¢	$5.5K	$6.2K	+$761.03	66% 210-107 (317)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 79.1¢	$5.3K	$5.3K	+$230.13	50% 25666-25500 (51166)
HI hi774c	Underavg 78¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	+$60.27	51% 4818-4540 (9358)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 89.7¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$31.92	50% 33863-33445 (67308)
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 92.9¢	$728.75	$540.88	-$187.87	59% 46920-33175 (80095)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Overavg 19.6¢	$55.98	$63.32	+$2.55	57% 29237-21620 (50857)
└ Under leg	Underavg 79¢	$37.13	$42.16	+$0.24
└ Over leg	Overavg 19.6¢	$50.58	$21.16	+$2.31
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 4.9¢	$58.7	$60.75	+$1.31	54% 57169-49417 (106586)
└ Over leg	Overavg 4.9¢	$39.72	$40.05	+$0.33
└ Under leg	Underavg 87.2¢	$18.98	$20.71	+$0.98
FO foooool<$100	Underavg 81¢	$49.41	$54.72	+$5.31	50% 11182-10991 (22173)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Overavg 8.2¢	$2.47	$8.42	+$5.95	53% 5640-5054 (10694)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 6.2¢	$2.48	$2.54	+$0.06	49% 13022-13588 (26610)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 7.2¢	$0.77	$0.85	+$0.08	48% 8966-9597 (18563)

0x127e88ca7f26b32be5ff2b005c5478cbd3833dd8

Under

Invested

$5,473.13

Value

$6.2K

PnL

+$761.03

Record

66%

210-107 (317)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$5,253.09

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$230.13

Record

50%

25666-25500 (51166)

hi774c

Under

Invested

$2,851.07

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$60.27

Record

51%

4818-4540 (9358)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$1,363.44

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$31.92

Record

50%

33863-33445 (67308)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$728.75

Value

$540.88

PnL

-$187.87

Record

59%

46920-33175 (80095)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Over

Invested

$55.98

Value

$63.32

PnL

+$2.55

Record

57%

29237-21620 (50857)

Both legs:

Under$37.1379¢+$0.24

Over$50.5819.6¢+$2.31

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$58.7

Value

$60.75

PnL

+$1.31

Record

54%

57169-49417 (106586)

Both legs:

Over$39.724.9¢+$0.33

Under$18.9887.2¢+$0.98

foooool<$100

Under

Invested

$49.41

Value

$54.72

PnL

+$5.31

Record

50%

11182-10991 (22173)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.47

Value

$8.42

PnL

+$5.95

Record

53%

5640-5054 (10694)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.48

Value

$2.54

PnL

+$0.06

Record

49%

13022-13588 (26610)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.77

Value

$0.85

PnL

+$0.08

Record

48%

8966-9597 (18563)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 72%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 9 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Under 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.0%

72.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$35.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

135.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.