Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (66%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. AJ Auxerre: O/U 3.5
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (71%) · Under at 34¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 71%
$2.5K
-$630.95
51¢ → 34¢
-33% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 34%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Over 66%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Overavg 68¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$0 | 54% 57169-49417 (106586) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Underavg 36.2¢ | $795.54 | $717.7 | -$77.84 | 50% 25666-25500 (51166) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 75.3¢ | $935.51 | $385.11 | -$550.4 | 59% 46920-33175 (80095) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Overavg 24¢ | $41.76 | $36.54 | -$5.22 | 48% 8966-9597 (18563) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Underavg 79¢ | $24.14 | $23.8 | -$0.34 | 50% 11182-10991 (22173) |
RO Rocko33CTR<$100 | Underavg 74¢ | $20 | $21.35 | +$1.35 | 63% 1200-693 (1893) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 73¢ | $18.25 | $19.75 | +$1.5 | 53% 5640-5054 (10694) |
RN1Invested
$1,320.65
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
57169-49417 (106586)
Invested
$795.54
Value
$717.7
PnL
-$77.84
Record
50%
25666-25500 (51166)
Invested
$935.51
Value
$385.11
PnL
-$550.4
Record
59%
46920-33175 (80095)
Invested
$41.76
Value
$36.54
PnL
-$5.22
Record
48%
8966-9597 (18563)
Invested
$24.14
Value
$23.8
PnL
-$0.34
Record
50%
11182-10991 (22173)
Invested
$20
Value
$21.35
PnL
+$1.35
Record
63%
1200-693 (1893)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$18.25
Value
$19.75
PnL
+$1.5
Record
53%
5640-5054 (10694)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
34.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.