RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. AJ Auxerre: O/U 2.5

10 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 100¢ · $10K held · ended Nov 1

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.8K

Combined PnL

$-1.9K

Smart Money Entry

59.3¢ → 99.5¢

+68% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

10 of 15 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over10 traders

Total Value$8.9K

Total Shares17,276

Combined PnL$-1.5K

Under5 traders

Total Value$27.42

Total Shares926

Combined PnL-$403.27

Over — 67%Under — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-40 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Over) and the top 1000 (9 on Under) disagree here.

whaleOver 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 63% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Overavg 59¢	$5.2K	$4.5K	-$743.19	54% 57169-49417 (106586)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow	Overavg 59.5¢	$1.9K	$1.5K	-$448	54% 4943-4171 (9114)
CA Cannae	Overavg 59.8¢	$1.1K	$999.11	-$135.63	53% 16119-14285 (30404)
VeryLucky888	Overavg 59.5¢	$1.2K	$850	-$339.43	58% 42698-31074 (73772)
SN SnakeBall	Overavg 59.3¢	$690.61	$832.71	+$142.1	50% 33863-33445 (67308)
AN AnonymousUsernameARB<$100	Overavg 60¢	$773.1	$813.37	-$57.96	72% 6830-2625 (9455)
└ Under leg	Underavg 38¢	$355.5	$458.41	+$4.68
└ Over leg	Overavg 60¢	$417.6	$354.96	-$62.64
AN Anon455	Overavg 59¢	$147.5	$127.5	-$20	55% 3009-2439 (5448)
FO fooooolARB<$100	Underavg 53.8¢	$66.37	$62.21	-$4.16	50% 11182-10991 (22173)
└ Under leg	Underavg 53.8¢	$41.41	$37.73	-$3.68
└ Over leg	Overavg 52¢	$24.96	$24.48	-$0.48
US User7429<$100	Overavg 97.5¢	$36.26	$36.46	+$0.2	55% 8413-6766 (15179)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Overavg 61¢	$28.83	$29.84	+$1	57% 29237-21620 (50857)
LA LaarsY<$100	Overavg 39¢	$28.29	$28.65	+$0.36	51% 3435-3355 (6790)
RO Rocko33CTR<$100	Underavg 54¢	$20	$18.15	-$1.85	63% 1200-693 (1893)
LI Lilybaeum<$100	Overavg 44.3¢	$12.05	$14.7	+$2.65	61% 13793-8671 (22464)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 46¢	$400.77	$4.36	-$396.41	59% 46920-33175 (80095)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Underavg 64¢	$5.24	$4.14	-$1.11	48% 8966-9597 (18563)
VA Vampiro1CTR<$100	Underavg 54¢	$0.55	$0.74	+$0.19	77% 3443-1052 (4495)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 45.9¢	$4.13	$0.05	-$4.09	53% 5640-5054 (10694)

RN1

Over

Invested

$5,199.85

Value

$4.5K

PnL

-$743.19

Record

54%

57169-49417 (106586)

WeBuyHighWeSelllow

Over

Invested

$1,904

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$448

Record

54%

4943-4171 (9114)

Cannae

Over

Invested

$1,134.74

Value

$999.11

PnL

-$135.63

Record

53%

16119-14285 (30404)

VeryLucky888

Over

Invested

$1,207.1

Value

$850

PnL

-$339.43

Record

58%

42698-31074 (73772)

SnakeBall

Over

Invested

$690.61

Value

$832.71

PnL

+$142.1

Record

50%

33863-33445 (67308)

AnonymousUsernameARB<$100

Over

Invested

$773.1

Value

$813.37

PnL

-$57.96

Record

72%

6830-2625 (9455)

Both legs:

Invested

$147.5

Value

$127.5

PnL

-$20

Record

55%

3009-2439 (5448)

fooooolARB<$100

Under

Invested

$66.37

Value

$62.21

PnL

-$4.16

Record

50%

11182-10991 (22173)

Both legs:

Under$41.4153.8¢-$3.68

Over$24.9652¢-$0.48

User7429<$100

Over

Invested

$36.26

Value

$36.46

PnL

+$0.2

Record

55%

8413-6766 (15179)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Over

Invested

$28.83

Value

$29.84

PnL

+$1

Record

57%

29237-21620 (50857)

LaarsY<$100

Over

Invested

$28.29

Value

$28.65

PnL

+$0.36

Record

51%

3435-3355 (6790)

Rocko33CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$20

Value

$18.15

PnL

-$1.85

Record

63%

1200-693 (1893)

Lilybaeum<$100

Over

Invested

$12.05

Value

$14.7

PnL

+$2.65

Record

61%

13793-8671 (22464)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$400.77

Value

$4.36

PnL

-$396.41

Record

59%

46920-33175 (80095)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.24

Value

$4.14

PnL

-$1.11

Record

48%

8966-9597 (18563)

Vampiro1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.55

Value

$0.74

PnL

+$0.19

Record

77%

3443-1052 (4495)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.13

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$4.09

Record

53%

5640-5054 (10694)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

10 of 15 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-40 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Over) and the top 1000 (9 on Under) disagree here.

whaleOver 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 63% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.