RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. AJ Auxerre: O/U 1.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (80%) · Over at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 80%
$2.6K
-$758.77
78.3¢ → 100¢
+28% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Overavg 78¢ | $2.3K | $2.3K | -$2.75 | 54% 57169-49417 (106586) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Overavg 81.4¢ | $318.28 | $298.47 | +$1.23 | 50% 25666-25500 (51166) |
FO foooool<$100 | Overavg 76¢ | $39.36 | $33.04 | -$6.32 | 50% 11182-10991 (22173) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Overavg 82¢ | $4.1 | $4.15 | +$0.03 | 53% 16119-14285 (30404) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 21.8¢ | $752.68 | $1.73 | -$750.95 | 59% 46920-33175 (80095) |
RN1Invested
$2,310.45
Value
$2.3K
PnL
-$2.75
Record
54%
57169-49417 (106586)
Invested
$318.28
Value
$298.47
PnL
+$1.23
Record
50%
25666-25500 (51166)
Invested
$39.36
Value
$33.04
PnL
-$6.32
Record
50%
11182-10991 (22173)
Invested
$4.1
Value
$4.15
PnL
+$0.03
Record
53%
16119-14285 (30404)
Invested
$752.68
Value
$1.73
PnL
-$750.95
Record
59%
46920-33175 (80095)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.