Will RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. AJ Auxerre end in a draw?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 100¢ · $908 held · ended Nov 1

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$907.61

Combined PnL

-$74.39

Smart Money Entry

77.5¢ → 99.5¢

+28% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$679.25

Total Shares843

Combined PnL+$26.44

Yes4 traders

Total Value$228.36

Total Shares1,375

Combined PnL-$100.83

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Noavg 71.2¢	$184.3	$211.06	+$26.76	52% 13929-12704 (26633)
AN Anon455	Noavg 75¢	$216.36	$196.17	-$20.19	55% 3009-2439 (5448)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 24¢	$321.18	$159.51	-$63.8	58% 42698-31074 (73772)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 95¢	$123.31	$129.15	+$5.84	59% 46920-33175 (80095)
oieshfn345<$100	Noavg 70¢	$80.84	$94.12	+$13.28	57% 1817-1366 (3183)
RN1<$100	Noavg 96¢	$48	$48.75	+$0.75	54% 57169-49417 (106586)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 23.5¢	$52.14	$41.07	-$11.07	58% 18783-13847 (32630)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Yesavg 24¢	$38.03	$26.94	-$11.09	53% 16119-14285 (30404)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$15.71	$0.84	-$14.87	53% 5640-5054 (10694)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Invested

$184.3

Value

$211.06

PnL

+$26.76

Record

52%

13929-12704 (26633)

Anon455

Invested

$216.36

Value

$196.17

PnL

-$20.19

Record

55%

3009-2439 (5448)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$321.18

Value

$159.51

PnL

-$63.8

Record

58%

42698-31074 (73772)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$123.31

Value

$129.15

PnL

+$5.84

Record

59%

46920-33175 (80095)

oieshfn345<$100

Invested

$80.84

Value

$94.12

PnL

+$13.28

Record

57%

1817-1366 (3183)

RN1<$100

Invested

$48

Value

$48.75

PnL

+$0.75

Record

54%

57169-49417 (106586)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$52.14

Value

$41.07

PnL

-$11.07

Record

58%

18783-13847 (32630)

CannaeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$38.03

Value

$26.94

PnL

-$11.09

Record

53%

16119-14285 (30404)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.71

Value

$0.84

PnL

-$14.87

Record

53%

5640-5054 (10694)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.