RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. AJ Auxerre: Both Teams to Score
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 64¢ · $943 held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
1 arb excluded
$943.27
$116.85
43.1¢ → 64¢
+49% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 64%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FO fooooolARB<$100 | Yesavg 55.6¢ | $562.25 | $440.11 | -$122.14 | 50% 11182-10991 (22173) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 55.6¢ | $477.69 | $334.85 | -$142.85 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 49¢ | $84.55 | $105.26 | +$20.71 | |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 41.2¢ | $241.91 | $366.69 | +$124.78 | 59% 46920-33175 (80095) |
 RN1<$100 | Noavg 55¢ | $62.02 | $68.78 | -$6.2 | 54% 57169-49417 (106586) |
AN AnonymousUsername<$100 | Noavg 38¢ | $22.79 | $35.07 | +$0 | 72% 6830-2625 (9455) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Noavg 38¢ | $7.24 | $11.63 | +$0 | 53% 16119-14285 (30404) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 59¢ | $9.45 | $10.53 | +$1.08 | 49% 13022-13588 (26610) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 61¢ | $5.45 | $5.47 | +$0.02 | 53% 5640-5054 (10694) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Yesavg 61.3¢ | $11 | $5 | -$2.82 | 58% 42698-31074 (73772) |
Invested
$562.25
Value
$440.11
PnL
-$122.14
Record
50%
11182-10991 (22173)
Both legs:
Invested
$241.91
Value
$366.69
PnL
+$124.78
Record
59%
46920-33175 (80095)
RN1<$100Invested
$62.02
Value
$68.78
PnL
-$6.2
Record
54%
57169-49417 (106586)
Invested
$22.79
Value
$35.07
PnL
+$0
Record
72%
6830-2625 (9455)
Invested
$7.24
Value
$11.63
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
16119-14285 (30404)
Invested
$9.45
Value
$10.53
PnL
+$1.08
Record
49%
13022-13588 (26610)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$5.45
Value
$5.47
PnL
+$0.02
Record
53%
5640-5054 (10694)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$11
Value
$5
PnL
-$2.82
Record
58%
42698-31074 (73772)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
64.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.