Will AJ Auxerre win on 2026-11-01?

15 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 100¢ · $59K held · ended Nov 1

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$58.6K

Combined PnL

$1.3K

Smart Money Entry

82.4¢ → 99.8¢

+21% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

15 of 20 top traders (75%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No15 traders

Total Value$54.0K

Total Shares57,712

Combined PnL+$6.0K

Yes5 traders

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares33,107

Combined PnL$-4.7K

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 60% · 5

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 86% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO Momo63	Noavg 83.8¢	$35.1K	$39.2K	+$4.1K	93% 879-63 (942)
AN AnonymousUsername	Noavg 75.5¢	$6.4K	$7.8K	+$1.4K	72% 6830-2625 (9455)
0X 0x5E39013a1d7C4B502ad2Ea073d7e8A0469cA352C-1765309578276	Noavg 76¢	$2.3K	$2.8K	+$480	67% 2646-1285 (3931)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Yesavg 23.6¢	$4.7K	$2.0K	$-2.7K	59% 46920-33175 (80095)
AN Anon455CTR	Yesavg 23.9¢	$2.5K	$1.9K	-$645.81	55% 3009-2439 (5448)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 92¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$19.15	50% 33863-33445 (67308)
oieshfn345	Noavg 91.2¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$10.38	57% 1817-1366 (3183)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 74¢	$685.74	$670.61	-$15.13	49% 13022-13588 (26610)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 17¢	$1.4K	$536.1	-$863.11	50% 25666-25500 (51166)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Noavg 83.1¢	$253.85	$285.74	+$31.89	52% 13929-12704 (26633)
FO foooool	Noavg 75.9¢	$174.71	$215.35	+$40.64	50% 11182-10991 (22173)
GO goldmyname	Noavg 99¢	$123.75	$124.38	+$0.63	60% 146-96 (242)
TO topdogbigboi	Noavg 84¢	$95.13	$100.14	+$5.01	48% 8966-9597 (18563)
RN1CTR	Yesavg 15¢	$593.05	$81.48	-$511.57	54% 57169-49417 (106586)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 76¢	$72.61	$58.55	-$14.06	53% 5640-5054 (10694)
poshposh<$100	Noavg 83¢	$22.61	$25.47	+$2.86	58% 10670-7656 (18326)
CA Cannae<$100	Noavg 75¢	$19.5	$24.31	+$4.81	53% 16119-14285 (30404)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 16.3¢	$44.2	$17.68	-$26.52	58% 18783-13847 (32630)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Noavg 97¢	$12.8	$12.94	+$0.13	53% 2250-1980 (4230)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100	Noavg 77¢	$7.7	$9.35	+$0.05	51% 1529-1481 (3010)

Momo63

Invested

$35,143.68

Value

$39.2K

PnL

+$4.1K

Record

93%

879-63 (942)

AnonymousUsername

Invested

$6,439.83

Value

$7.8K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

72%

6830-2625 (9455)

0x5E39013a1d7C4B502ad2Ea073d7e8A0469cA352C-1765309578276

Invested

$2,280

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$480

Record

67%

2646-1285 (3931)

UpTheBluesCTR

Yes

Invested

$4,695.85

Value

$2.0K

PnL

$-2.7K

Record

59%

46920-33175 (80095)

Anon455CTR

Yes

Invested

$2,542.55

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$645.81

Record

55%

3009-2439 (5448)

SnakeBall

Invested

$1,400.49

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$19.15

Record

50%

33863-33445 (67308)

oieshfn345

Invested

$1,168.24

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$10.38

Record

57%

1817-1366 (3183)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$685.74

Value

$670.61

PnL

-$15.13

Record

49%

13022-13588 (26610)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,399.22

Value

$536.1

PnL

-$863.11

Record

50%

25666-25500 (51166)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Invested

$253.85

Value

$285.74

PnL

+$31.89

Record

52%

13929-12704 (26633)

foooool

Invested

$174.71

Value

$215.35

PnL

+$40.64

Record

50%

11182-10991 (22173)

goldmyname

Invested

$123.75

Value

$124.38

PnL

+$0.63

Record

60%

146-96 (242)

topdogbigboi

Invested

$95.13

Value

$100.14

PnL

+$5.01

Record

48%

8966-9597 (18563)

RN1CTR

Yes

Invested

$593.05

Value

$81.48

PnL

-$511.57

Record

54%

57169-49417 (106586)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$72.61

Value

$58.55

PnL

-$14.06

Record

53%

5640-5054 (10694)

poshposh<$100

Invested

$22.61

Value

$25.47

PnL

+$2.86

Record

58%

10670-7656 (18326)

Cannae<$100

Invested

$19.5

Value

$24.31

PnL

+$4.81

Record

53%

16119-14285 (30404)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$44.2

Value

$17.68

PnL

-$26.52

Record

58%

18783-13847 (32630)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Invested

$12.8

Value

$12.94

PnL

+$0.13

Record

53%

2250-1980 (4230)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100

Invested

$7.7

Value

$9.35

PnL

+$0.05

Record

51%

1529-1481 (3010)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

15 of 20 top traders (75%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 60% · 5

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 86% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.