Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. ES Troyes AC end in a draw?
6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 91¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 60%
$4.3K
-$32.57
91¢ → 90.5¢
-1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+27 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Mature
45h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NM NM-P | Noavg 91¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | -$7.27 | 64% 10131-5689 (15820) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 91¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | -$7.1 | 64% 10152-5754 (15906) |
LI LimousinCTR | Yesavg 9.4¢ | $600.79 | $606.57 | +$5.78 | 50% 1794-1776 (3570) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 90.9¢ | $510.83 | $452.5 | +$1.13 | 58% 47334-34134 (81468) |
VE VenusianCTR | Yesavg 9.4¢ | $241.07 | $243.39 | +$2.32 | 49% 1774-1854 (3628) |
38 38791873984189 | Noavg 91.2¢ | $222.87 | $178.98 | -$33.57 | 48% 62085-66960 (129045) |
DV dv-pmCTR | Yesavg 8¢ | $103.7 | $110.18 | +$6.48 | 48% 3363-3589 (6952) |
OD Oddstorm<$100 | Noavg 92.4¢ | $75.63 | $75.33 | -$0.3 | 48% 7436-7974 (15410) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8¢ | $58.46 | $58.46 | +$0 | 50% 38141-37389 (75530) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $6.98 | $6.98 | -$0.04 | 50% 26296-25935 (52231) |
Invested
$1,323.45
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$7.27
Record
64%
10131-5689 (15820)
Invested
$1,291.84
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$7.1
Record
64%
10152-5754 (15906)
Invested
$600.79
Value
$606.57
PnL
+$5.78
Record
50%
1794-1776 (3570)
VeryLucky888Invested
$510.83
Value
$452.5
PnL
+$1.13
Record
58%
47334-34134 (81468)
Invested
$241.07
Value
$243.39
PnL
+$2.32
Record
49%
1774-1854 (3628)
Invested
$222.87
Value
$178.98
PnL
-$33.57
Record
48%
62085-66960 (129045)
Invested
$103.7
Value
$110.18
PnL
+$6.48
Record
48%
3363-3589 (6952)
Invested
$75.63
Value
$75.33
PnL
-$0.3
Record
48%
7436-7974 (15410)
Invested
$58.46
Value
$58.46
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
38141-37389 (75530)
Invested
$6.98
Value
$6.98
PnL
-$0.04
Record
50%
26296-25935 (52231)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.