Paris FC vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 4.5

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (40%) · Under at 90¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 1

Over11¢Under89¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 40%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$42.06

Smart Money Entry

86¢ → 89.5¢

+4% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over11%

Under90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares1,882

Combined PnL+$45.86

Over3 traders

Total Value$29.13

Total Shares225

Combined PnL-$3.8

Under — 40%Over — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Underavg 86¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$45.56	54% 57170-49418 (106588)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 85¢	$51	$53.1	+$0.3	57% 29237-21622 (50859)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 15¢	$14.1	$14.1	+$0	49% 13022-13588 (26610)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Overavg 14.2¢	$13.16	$10.69	-$2.48	50% 25666-25500 (51166)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Overavg 15¢	$5.67	$4.35	-$1.32	53% 5642-5057 (10699)

RN1

Under

Invested

$1,567.2

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$45.56

Record

54%

57170-49418 (106588)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$51

Value

$53.1

PnL

+$0.3

Record

57%

29237-21622 (50859)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$14.1

Value

$14.1

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

13022-13588 (26610)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$13.16

Value

$10.69

PnL

-$2.48

Record

50%

25666-25500 (51166)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.67

Value

$4.35

PnL

-$1.32

Record

53%

5642-5057 (10699)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 90%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.9%

89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.