Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (54%). 2 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Paris FC vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 2.5

2 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (20%) · Under at 47¢ · $25K held · ends Nov 1

Over54¢Under46¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 20%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$25.0K

Combined PnL

-$100.69

Smart Money Entry

47¢ → 46.5¢

-1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 47%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 10 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors Over 54%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over54%

Under47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$15.3K

Total Shares33,004

Combined PnL-$163.55

Over8 traders

Total Value$7.1K

Total Shares13,277

Combined PnL+$62.86

Under — 20%Over — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FR fraagenCTR	Underavg 47¢	$15.5K	$15.3K	-$163.57	45% 61-76 (137)
SN SnakeBall	Overavg 53¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	+$25.29	50% 33839-33425 (67264)
CA CannaeARB<$100	Overavg 53¢	$2.3K	$2.4K	+$53.58	53% 16115-14278 (30393)
└ Over leg	Overavg 53¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$17.64
└ Under leg	Underavg 43¢	$441.49	$477.43	+$35.94
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 53.1¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$9.16	50% 25648-25477 (51125)
HI hi774c	Overavg 53¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$10.81	52% 4818-4536 (9354)
LU LuckyLoo	Overavg 53¢	$557.03	$562.29	+$5.26	49% 13013-13570 (26583)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow	Overavg 53¢	$477	$481.5	+$4.5	54% 4942-4170 (9112)
AN AnonymousUsername	Overavg 53¢	$423.13	$426.64	+$3.5	72% 6827-2621 (9448)
0xheavy888	Overavg 53¢	$318	$321	+$3	55% 7314-5881 (13195)
VeryLucky888	Overavg 53¢	$291.18	$267.5	+$1.34	58% 42674-31054 (73728)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Overavg 53¢	$135.22	$141.23	+$6.01	57% 29226-21613 (50839)
└ Under leg	Underavg 43¢	$65.79	$71.15	+$5.36
└ Over leg	Overavg 53¢	$69.43	$70.09	+$0.66
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 44¢	$2.32	$2.35	+$0.03	53% 5610-5034 (10644)

fraagenCTR

Under

Invested

$15,507.96

Value

$15.3K

PnL

-$163.57

Record

45%

61-76 (137)

SnakeBall

Over

Invested

$2,680.46

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$25.29

Record

50%

33839-33425 (67264)

CannaeARB<$100

Over

Invested

$2,311.71

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$53.58

Record

53%

16115-14278 (30393)

Both legs:

Over$1,870.2153¢+$17.64

Under$441.4943¢+$35.94

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$1,190.29

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$9.16

Record

50%

25648-25477 (51125)

hi774c

Over

Invested

$1,146.1

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$10.81

Record

52%

4818-4536 (9354)

LuckyLoo

Over

Invested

$557.03

Value

$562.29

PnL

+$5.26

Record

49%

13013-13570 (26583)

WeBuyHighWeSelllow

Over

Invested

$477

Value

$481.5

PnL

+$4.5

Record

54%

4942-4170 (9112)

AnonymousUsername

Over

Invested

$423.13

Value

$426.64

PnL

+$3.5

Record

72%

6827-2621 (9448)

0xheavy888

Over

Invested

$318

Value

$321

PnL

+$3

Record

55%

7314-5881 (13195)

VeryLucky888

Over

Invested

$291.18

Value

$267.5

PnL

+$1.34

Record

58%

42674-31054 (73728)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Over

Invested

$135.22

Value

$141.23

PnL

+$6.01

Record

57%

29226-21613 (50839)

Both legs:

Invested

$2.32

Value

$2.35

PnL

+$0.03

Record

53%

5610-5034 (10644)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 47%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 10 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors Over 54%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.