Paris FC vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 1.5

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 1

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

-$250.35

Smart Money Entry

85.3¢ → 100¢

+17% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 12 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,327

Combined PnL-$249.56

Under6 traders

Total Value$126.46

Total Shares514

Combined PnL-$0.78

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Overavg 80¢	$562.91	$470.91	-$221.24	59% 46920-33177 (80097)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1	Overavg 76.3¢	$254.62	$211.77	-$42.85	53% 2250-1980 (4230)
RO Rocko33	Overavg 97¢	$200	$204.12	+$4.12	63% 1200-693 (1893)
VA Vampiro1	Overavg 97¢	$200	$204.12	+$4.12	77% 3443-1052 (4495)
AR ARocky33<$100	Overavg 95¢	$95	$99	+$4	76% 4145-1304 (5449)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 22¢	$80.47	$78.64	-$1.83	50% 33863-33445 (67308)
FO fooooolARB<$100	Overavg 56¢	$36.39	$45.32	+$8.92	50% 11182-10991 (22173)
└ Over leg	Overavg 56¢	$24.92	$24.7	-$0.22
└ Under leg	Underavg 24.8¢	$11.47	$20.62	+$9.15
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 40.7¢	$13.33	$14.23	+$0.9	54% 57170-49418 (106588)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Underavg 22.6¢	$14.69	$13.95	-$0.73	53% 16119-14285 (30404)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Underavg 35.1¢	$8.94	$10.32	+$1.38	50% 25666-25500 (51166)
AN Anon455<$100	Overavg 61¢	$6.49	$8.78	+$2.29	55% 3010-2439 (5449)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 38¢	$6	$6.16	+$0.16	49% 13022-13588 (26610)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 24¢	$3.82	$3.16	-$0.67	53% 5642-5057 (10699)

UpTheBlues

Over

Invested

$562.91

Value

$470.91

PnL

-$221.24

Record

59%

46920-33177 (80097)

hedgevaultmainnet1

Over

Invested

$254.62

Value

$211.77

PnL

-$42.85

Record

53%

2250-1980 (4230)

Rocko33

Over

Invested

$200

Value

$204.12

PnL

+$4.12

Record

63%

1200-693 (1893)

Vampiro1

Over

Invested

$200

Value

$204.12

PnL

+$4.12

Record

77%

3443-1052 (4495)

ARocky33<$100

Over

Invested

$95

Value

$99

PnL

+$4

Record

76%

4145-1304 (5449)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$80.47

Value

$78.64

PnL

-$1.83

Record

50%

33863-33445 (67308)

fooooolARB<$100

Over

Invested

$36.39

Value

$45.32

PnL

+$8.92

Record

50%

11182-10991 (22173)

Both legs:

Over$24.9256¢-$0.22

Under$11.4724.8¢+$9.15

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$13.33

Value

$14.23

PnL

+$0.9

Record

54%

57170-49418 (106588)

CannaeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$14.69

Value

$13.95

PnL

-$0.73

Record

53%

16119-14285 (30404)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$8.94

Value

$10.32

PnL

+$1.38

Record

50%

25666-25500 (51166)

Anon455<$100

Over

Invested

$6.49

Value

$8.78

PnL

+$2.29

Record

55%

3010-2439 (5449)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$6.16

PnL

+$0.16

Record

49%

13022-13588 (26610)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.82

Value

$3.16

PnL

-$0.67

Record

53%

5642-5057 (10699)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 12 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.