Will Paris FC win on 2026-11-01?

11 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (65%) · Yes at 91¢ · $14K held · ended Nov 1

Yes91¢No9¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 65%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$14.5K

Combined PnL

$1.3K

Smart Money Entry

67.7¢ → 90.5¢

+34% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 91%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 17 top traders (65%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes91%

No10%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes11 traders

Total Value$14.0K

Total Shares17,405

Combined PnL+$1.4K

No6 traders

Total Value$215.28

Total Shares386

Combined PnL-$34.32

Yes — 65%No — 35%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Yesavg 83.3¢	$5.8K	$6.0K	+$203.2	59% 46920-33177 (80097)
oieshfn345	Yesavg 76.7¢	$3.2K	$3.4K	+$248.24	57% 1817-1366 (3183)
AN Anon455	Yesavg 64.3¢	$1.7K	$2.3K	+$618.43	55% 3010-2439 (5449)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Yesavg 41¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$15	51% 1529-1481 (3010)
RN1	Yesavg 39¢	$300.38	$499.8	+$199.42	54% 57170-49418 (106588)
HRTrading	Yesavg 41.3¢	$149.22	$220.37	+$71.15	53% 5642-5057 (10699)
LU LuckyLoo	Yesavg 39¢	$178.23	$180.52	+$2.29	49% 13022-13588 (26610)
LI LilybaeumARB<$100	Noavg 61.7¢	$171.58	$170.16	-$1.42	61% 13793-8671 (22464)
└ No leg	Noavg 61.7¢	$113.24	$111.07	-$2.17
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 39¢	$58.34	$59.09	+$0.75
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR	Noavg 54.1¢	$164.13	$154.08	-$10.05	52% 13930-12706 (26636)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Noavg 46¢	$172.28	$105.9	-$66.38	48% 8966-9599 (18565)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 61.6¢	$48.08	$66.75	+$18.67
└ No leg	Noavg 46¢	$124.2	$39.15	-$85.05
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Yesavg 38¢	$31.23	$54.66	+$23.43	57% 29237-21622 (50859)
poshposhCTR<$100	Noavg 53¢	$27.29	$19.82	-$7.47	58% 10670-7658 (18328)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Noavg 55¢	$26.84	$18.79	-$8.05	50% 33863-33445 (67308)
RI RichieRicher<$100	Yesavg 87¢	$10.94	$11	+$0.06	53% 743-647 (1390)
bernardi22CTR<$100	Noavg 12¢	$100	$10.98	-$8.86	56% 1299-1019 (2318)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Yesavg 87¢	$9.57	$9.63	+$0.05	58% 18784-13847 (32631)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Yesavg 90¢	$9	$9.05	+$0.05	50% 25666-25500 (51166)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Noavg 59¢	$8.49	$8.56	+$0.07	50% 11182-10991 (22173)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Noavg 61¢	$3.05	$3.05	+$0.03	52% 7504-6793 (14297)

UpTheBlues

Yes

Invested

$5,837.05

Value

$6.0K

PnL

+$203.2

Record

59%

46920-33177 (80097)

oieshfn345

Yes

Invested

$3,162.04

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$248.24

Record

57%

1817-1366 (3183)

Anon455

Yes

Invested

$1,693.66

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$618.43

Record

55%

3010-2439 (5449)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Yes

Invested

$1,246.2

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$15

Record

51%

1529-1481 (3010)

RN1

Yes

Invested

$300.38

Value

$499.8

PnL

+$199.42

Record

54%

57170-49418 (106588)

HRTrading

Yes

Invested

$149.22

Value

$220.37

PnL

+$71.15

Record

53%

5642-5057 (10699)

LuckyLoo

Yes

Invested

$178.23

Value

$180.52

PnL

+$2.29

Record

49%

13022-13588 (26610)

LilybaeumARB<$100

Invested

$171.58

Value

$170.16

PnL

-$1.42

Record

61%

13793-8671 (22464)

Both legs:

No$113.2461.7¢-$2.17

Yes$58.3439¢+$0.75

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR

Invested

$164.13

Value

$154.08

PnL

-$10.05

Record

52%

13930-12706 (26636)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Invested

$172.28

Value

$105.9

PnL

-$66.38

Record

48%

8966-9599 (18565)

Both legs:

Yes$48.0861.6¢+$18.67

No$124.246¢-$85.05

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.23

Value

$54.66

PnL

+$23.43

Record

57%

29237-21622 (50859)

poshposhCTR<$100

Invested

$27.29

Value

$19.82

PnL

-$7.47

Record

58%

10670-7658 (18328)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Invested

$26.84

Value

$18.79

PnL

-$8.05

Record

50%

33863-33445 (67308)

RichieRicher<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.94

Value

$11

PnL

+$0.06

Record

53%

743-647 (1390)

bernardi22CTR<$100

Invested

$100

Value

$10.98

PnL

-$8.86

Record

56%

1299-1019 (2318)

BillBenter2026<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.57

Value

$9.63

PnL

+$0.05

Record

58%

18784-13847 (32631)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$9.05

PnL

+$0.05

Record

50%

25666-25500 (51166)

fooooolCTR<$100

Invested

$8.49

Value

$8.56

PnL

+$0.07

Record

50%

11182-10991 (22173)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Invested

$3.05

Value

$3.05

PnL

+$0.03

Record

52%

7504-6793 (14297)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 91%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 17 top traders (65%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.9%

90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.