Will Paris FC vs. AS Monaco FC end in a draw?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 74¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 33%
$1.8K
$13.99
72.8¢ → 73.5¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 74%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LZ lzh1 | Noavg 73¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$10.31 | 43% 471-634 (1105) |
AN AnonymousUsername | Noavg 72¢ | $282.39 | $286.32 | +$3.92 | 72% 6830-2625 (9455) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 27¢ | $22.14 | $22.14 | +$0 | 57% 29237-21620 (50857) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 27¢ | $6.75 | $6.63 | -$0.13 | 53% 5640-5054 (10694) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 27¢ | $4.81 | $4.72 | -$0.09 | 50% 19450-19817 (39267) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Yesavg 27¢ | $1.35 | $1.35 | -$0.03 | 52% 7503-6793 (14296) |
Invested
$1,505.12
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$10.31
Record
43%
471-634 (1105)
Invested
$282.39
Value
$286.32
PnL
+$3.92
Record
72%
6830-2625 (9455)
Invested
$22.14
Value
$22.14
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
29237-21620 (50857)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$6.75
Value
$6.63
PnL
-$0.13
Record
53%
5640-5054 (10694)
Invested
$4.81
Value
$4.72
PnL
-$0.09
Record
50%
19450-19817 (39267)
Invested
$1.35
Value
$1.35
PnL
-$0.03
Record
52%
7503-6793 (14296)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.