Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (54%). 7 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Paris FC vs. AS Monaco FC: Both Teams to Score

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (64%) · No at 47¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 1

Yes54¢No46¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 64%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$5.63

Smart Money Entry

41.1¢ → 46.5¢

+13% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 47%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 54%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes54%

No47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$479.22

Total Shares812

Combined PnL-$5.35

No7 traders

Total Value$582.63

Total Shares1,419

Combined PnL-$0.29

Yes — 36%No — 64%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0xheavy888	Yesavg 59.5¢	$238	$236	-$4	55% 7318-5882 (13200)
VeryLucky888	Yesavg 59¢	$177	$177	-$1.5	58% 42700-31074 (73774)
CA CannaeCTR	Noavg 40¢	$145.73	$149.38	+$3.64	53% 16119-14285 (30404)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Noavg 41¢	$143.47	$143.47	-$0	50% 33863-33445 (67308)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Noavg 44.2¢	$144.12	$133.66	-$10.46	59% 46920-33177 (80097)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100	Noavg 39¢	$76.97	$80.92	+$3.95	72% 6831-2625 (9456)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR	Noavg 40¢	$174	$72.21	+$2.61	57% 29237-21622 (50859)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Yesavg 59¢	$63.22	$63.22	+$0	65% 1758-962 (2720)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Yesavg 56¢	$2.85	$3	+$0.15	53% 2250-1980 (4230)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Noavg 40¢	$2.2	$2.26	+$0.03	49% 13022-13588 (26610)
RN1CTR<$100	Noavg 44¢	$0.79	$0.73	-$0.05	54% 57170-49418 (106588)

0xheavy888

Yes

Invested

$238

Value

$236

PnL

-$4

Record

55%

7318-5882 (13200)

VeryLucky888

Yes

Invested

$177

Value

$177

PnL

-$1.5

Record

58%

42700-31074 (73774)

CannaeCTR

Invested

$145.73

Value

$149.38

PnL

+$3.64

Record

53%

16119-14285 (30404)

SnakeBallCTR

Invested

$143.47

Value

$143.47

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

33863-33445 (67308)

UpTheBluesCTR

Invested

$144.12

Value

$133.66

PnL

-$10.46

Record

59%

46920-33177 (80097)

AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100

Invested

$76.97

Value

$80.92

PnL

+$3.95

Record

72%

6831-2625 (9456)

LeLynxMalynxCTR

Invested

$174

Value

$72.21

PnL

+$2.61

Record

57%

29237-21622 (50859)

darkumbreon88<$100

Yes

Invested

$63.22

Value

$63.22

PnL

+$0

Record

65%

1758-962 (2720)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.85

Value

PnL

+$0.15

Record

53%

2250-1980 (4230)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Invested

$2.2

Value

$2.26

PnL

+$0.03

Record

49%

13022-13588 (26610)

RN1CTR<$100

Invested

$0.79

Value

$0.73

PnL

-$0.05

Record

54%

57170-49418 (106588)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 47%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 54%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.