Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-11-01?

11 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 99¢ · $55K held · ended Nov 1

Yes1¢No99¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 73%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$55.1K

Combined PnL

$937.91

Smart Money Entry

91.6¢ → 98.6¢

+8% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 15 top traders (73%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$51.9K

Total Shares55,477

Combined PnL+$995.44

Yes4 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares3,986

Combined PnL-$57.53

No — 73%Yes — 27%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 95.7¢	$40.9K	$41.5K	+$641.56	59% 46920-33177 (80097)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 97.2¢	$3.1K	$3.2K	+$13.36	50% 33863-33445 (67308)
XW xwingboy	Noavg 66¢	$3.0K	$3.1K	+$46.02	64% 301-169 (470)
oieshfn345	Noavg 74.4¢	$1.6K	$1.8K	+$236	57% 1817-1366 (3183)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Noavg 66.2¢	$1.3K	$1.5K	+$187.52	55% 3010-2439 (5449)
└ No leg	Noavg 66.2¢	$740.92	$1.0K	+$261.03
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 12¢	$603.08	$529.57	-$73.51
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 65¢	$854.89	$881.2	+$26.3	50% 25666-25500 (51166)
HRTrading	Noavg 96.3¢	$810.45	$815.37	+$4.92	53% 5642-5057 (10699)
CA CannaeCTR	Yesavg 34¢	$673.28	$662.42	-$10.86	53% 16119-14285 (30404)
0X 0xde5d9a7dce9faf8df086c066b698375c1d2d9192CTR	Yesavg 35¢	$400	$377.14	-$22.86	61% 129-81 (210)
OX oxe78sh4w98CTR	Yesavg 35¢	$378.38	$356.76	-$21.62	53% 459-408 (867)
LI Lilybaeum	Noavg 89.2¢	$273.28	$298.09	+$24.81	61% 13793-8671 (22464)
RN1ARB<$100	Yesavg 3.1¢	$246.6	$226.27	-$20.32	54% 57170-49418 (106588)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 3.1¢	$181.87	$161.45	-$20.42
└ No leg	Noavg 97.1¢	$64.73	$64.83	+$0.1
VeryLucky888	Noavg 68¢	$221.01	$213.69	-$3.1	58% 42700-31074 (73774)
FO foooool<$100	Noavg 68.2¢	$89.93	$95.66	+$5.74	50% 11182-10991 (22173)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Yesavg 34¢	$74.46	$72.27	-$2.19	57% 29237-21622 (50859)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Noavg 97.2¢	$19.34	$19.37	+$0.03	52% 13930-12706 (26636)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100	Noavg 97¢	$9.7	$9.51	-$0.19	51% 1529-1481 (3010)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$40,906.6

Value

$41.5K

PnL

+$641.56

Record

59%

46920-33177 (80097)

SnakeBall

Invested

$3,138.1

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$13.36

Record

50%

33863-33445 (67308)

xwingboy

Invested

$3,037.12

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$46.02

Record

64%

301-169 (470)

oieshfn345

Invested

$1,569.78

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$236

Record

57%

1817-1366 (3183)

Anon455ARB<$100

Invested

$1,344

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$187.52

Record

55%

3010-2439 (5449)

Both legs:

No$740.9266.2¢+$261.03

Yes$603.0812¢-$73.51

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$854.89

Value

$881.2

PnL

+$26.3

Record

50%

25666-25500 (51166)

HRTrading

Invested

$810.45

Value

$815.37

PnL

+$4.92

Record

53%

5642-5057 (10699)

CannaeCTR

Yes

Invested

$673.28

Value

$662.42

PnL

-$10.86

Record

53%

16119-14285 (30404)

0xde5d9a7dce9faf8df086c066b698375c1d2d9192CTR

Yes

Invested

$400

Value

$377.14

PnL

-$22.86

Record

61%

129-81 (210)

oxe78sh4w98CTR

Yes

Invested

$378.38

Value

$356.76

PnL

-$21.62

Record

53%

459-408 (867)

Lilybaeum

Invested

$273.28

Value

$298.09

PnL

+$24.81

Record

61%

13793-8671 (22464)

RN1ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$246.6

Value

$226.27

PnL

-$20.32

Record

54%

57170-49418 (106588)

Both legs:

Yes$181.873.1¢-$20.42

No$64.7397.1¢+$0.1

VeryLucky888

Invested

$221.01

Value

$213.69

PnL

-$3.1

Record

58%

42700-31074 (73774)

foooool<$100

Invested

$89.93

Value

$95.66

PnL

+$5.74

Record

50%

11182-10991 (22173)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$74.46

Value

$72.27

PnL

-$2.19

Record

57%

29237-21622 (50859)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Invested

$19.34

Value

$19.37

PnL

+$0.03

Record

52%

13930-12706 (26636)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100

Invested

$9.7

Value

$9.51

PnL

-$0.19

Record

51%

1529-1481 (3010)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 15 top traders (73%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.6%

98.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.