Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (58%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Olympique de Marseille vs. Toulouse FC: O/U 3.5
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (75%) · Over at 42¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Over
4
Over 75%
$1.5K
-$69.19
43¢ → 42¢
-2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 42%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Under 58%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 us391CTR | Overavg 43¢ | $1.5K | $1.4K | -$68.95 | 51% 1713-1675 (3388) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 57¢ | $33.63 | $34.22 | +$0.89 | 53% 5677-5082 (10759) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Overavg 43¢ | $33.54 | $31.98 | -$1.17 | 57% 29247-21632 (50879) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Overavg 41¢ | $1.98 | $2.03 | +$0.05 | 58% 42718-31089 (73807) |
us391CTRInvested
$1,482.54
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$68.95
Record
51%
1713-1675 (3388)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$33.63
Value
$34.22
PnL
+$0.89
Record
53%
5677-5082 (10759)
Invested
$33.54
Value
$31.98
PnL
-$1.17
Record
57%
29247-21632 (50879)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$1.98
Value
$2.03
PnL
+$0.05
Record
58%
42718-31089 (73807)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
42.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.