Olympique de Marseille vs. Toulouse FC: O/U 1.5
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (29%) · Over at 100¢ · $12K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Over
7
Over 29%
1 arb excluded
$11.9K
-$642.62
93.1¢ → 100¢
+7% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZX zxc368 | Overavg 99.9¢ | $6.0K | $6.0K | +$3.01 | 98% 13377-214 (13591) |
FO Forecastication2 | Overavg 86¢ | $5.0K | $4.8K | -$172.74 | 50% 7127-7172 (14299) |
HI hi774cCTR | Underavg 14¢ | $306 | $371.57 | +$65.57 | 51% 4818-4541 (9359) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Underavg 13.4¢ | $814.57 | $273.8 | -$540.77 | 50% 33888-33462 (67350) |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Underavg 12.8¢ | $362.22 | $259.84 | -$102.37 | 50% 25689-25525 (51214) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 83.6¢ | $149.2 | $168.63 | +$19.43 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 12.8¢ | $213.01 | $91.21 | -$121.8 | |
CA CannaeCTR | Underavg 14¢ | $190.45 | $220.17 | +$17.89 | 53% 16124-14290 (30414) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Underavg 11.2¢ | $36.64 | $21.2 | -$15.44 | 59% 46944-33223 (80167) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Underavg 17¢ | $0.2 | $0.05 | -$0.15 | 50% 11182-10999 (22181) |
Invested
$6,017.59
Value
$6.0K
PnL
+$3.01
Record
98%
13377-214 (13591)
Invested
$4,951.88
Value
$4.8K
PnL
-$172.74
Record
50%
7127-7172 (14299)
Invested
$306
Value
$371.57
PnL
+$65.57
Record
51%
4818-4541 (9359)
Invested
$814.57
Value
$273.8
PnL
-$540.77
Record
50%
33888-33462 (67350)
Invested
$362.22
Value
$259.84
PnL
-$102.37
Record
50%
25689-25525 (51214)
Both legs:
Invested
$190.45
Value
$220.17
PnL
+$17.89
Record
53%
16124-14290 (30414)
Invested
$36.64
Value
$21.2
PnL
-$15.44
Record
59%
46944-33223 (80167)
Invested
$0.2
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$0.15
Record
50%
11182-10999 (22181)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.