Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-11-01?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 51¢ · $29K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 33%
$28.7K
-$248.12
50¢ → 50.5¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KY Kyn008 | Noavg 50¢ | $37.6K | $18.2K | -$564.11 | 49% 255-266 (521) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Yesavg 50¢ | $7.2K | $7.2K | +$216.38 | 59% 46876-33139 (80015) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Yesavg 50¢ | $6.2K | $3.2K | +$92.67 | 50% 25644-25471 (51115) |
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100 | Yesavg 48¢ | $78.64 | $86.42 | +$7.78 | 72% 6827-2619 (9446) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 50¢ | $38.47 | $38.47 | +$0 | 53% 5597-5025 (10622) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Noavg 50¢ | $16.65 | $15.98 | -$0.83 | 53% 16112-14276 (30388) |
Invested
$37,607.36
Value
$18.2K
PnL
-$564.11
Record
49%
255-266 (521)
Invested
$7,235.99
Value
$7.2K
PnL
+$216.38
Record
59%
46876-33139 (80015)
Invested
$6,178
Value
$3.2K
PnL
+$92.67
Record
50%
25644-25471 (51115)
Invested
$78.64
Value
$86.42
PnL
+$7.78
Record
72%
6827-2619 (9446)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$38.47
Value
$38.47
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
5597-5025 (10622)
Invested
$16.65
Value
$15.98
PnL
-$0.83
Record
53%
16112-14276 (30388)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.