Olympique de Marseille vs. Toulouse FC: Both Teams to Score
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 64¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 75%
$1.9K
$2.5
64.3¢ → 64¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 64%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
YO yohan75 | Yesavg 64.1¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$8.64 | 53% 273-242 (515) |
 VeryLucky888 | Yesavg 64.9¢ | $274.47 | $270.52 | -$3.95 | 58% 42636-31031 (73667) |
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542 | Yesavg 65¢ | $132.6 | $130.56 | -$2.04 | 47% 2571-2857 (5428) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 36¢ | $10.53 | $10.24 | -$0.15 | 53% 5577-5013 (10590) |
Invested
$1,447.07
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$8.64
Record
53%
273-242 (515)
VeryLucky888Invested
$274.47
Value
$270.52
PnL
-$3.95
Record
58%
42636-31031 (73667)
Invested
$132.6
Value
$130.56
PnL
-$2.04
Record
47%
2571-2857 (5428)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$10.53
Value
$10.24
PnL
-$0.15
Record
53%
5577-5013 (10590)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
64.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.