Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (64%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
OGC Nice vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901: O/U 3.5
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (100%) · Over at 37¢ · $809 held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 100%
$809.23
-$19.32
37.8¢ → 36.5¢
-3% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 37%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Under 64%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 78%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 37.5¢ | $375 | $370 | -$5 | 58% 41483-30101 (71584) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR | Overavg 38¢ | $264.91 | $257.93 | -$6.97 | 53% 5576-4935 (10511) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Overavg 38.4¢ | $94.04 | $90.65 | -$4.62 | 46% 7901-9318 (17219) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Overavg 38¢ | $57 | $55.5 | -$2.25 | 58% 28411-20968 (49379) |
SL slimjoeCTR<$100 | Overavg 37¢ | $35.15 | $35.15 | -$0.48 | 51% 6486-6149 (12635) |
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$375
Value
$370
PnL
-$5
Record
58%
41483-30101 (71584)
Invested
$264.91
Value
$257.93
PnL
-$6.97
Record
53%
5576-4935 (10511)
Invested
$94.04
Value
$90.65
PnL
-$4.62
Record
46%
7901-9318 (17219)
Invested
$57
Value
$55.5
PnL
-$2.25
Record
58%
28411-20968 (49379)
Invested
$35.15
Value
$35.15
PnL
-$0.48
Record
51%
6486-6149 (12635)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
36.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.