OGC Nice vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901: O/U 1.5
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (57%) · Over at 100¢ · $575 held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Over
7
Over 57%
1 arb excluded
$574.68
-$39.58
81¢ → 100¢
+23% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CA CannaeARB<$100 | Overavg 82¢ | $153.25 | $154.18 | +$0.39 | 53% 15882-14070 (29952) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 82¢ | $120.02 | $120.75 | -$0.73 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 17.9¢ | $33.24 | $33.43 | +$1.12 | |
LU LuckyLoo | Overavg 81¢ | $117.83 | $141.96 | +$24.13 | 49% 12488-12848 (25336) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Overavg 79.9¢ | $139.23 | $130.28 | -$8.96 | 50% 24858-24564 (49422) |
38 38791873984189 | Overavg 81.9¢ | $111.08 | $125.31 | +$14.24 | 46% 7988-9443 (17431) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Underavg 20¢ | $14.8 | $13.32 | -$0.37 | 58% 28421-20980 (49401) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Underavg 18¢ | $4.39 | $4.39 | -$0 | 50% 33199-32726 (65925) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Underavg 12.6¢ | $71.39 | $2.83 | -$68.56 | 59% 45380-31733 (77113) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Overavg 95¢ | $2.47 | $2.42 | -$0.05 | 52% 4004-3650 (7654) |
Invested
$153.25
Value
$154.18
PnL
+$0.39
Record
53%
15882-14070 (29952)
Both legs:
Invested
$117.83
Value
$141.96
PnL
+$24.13
Record
49%
12488-12848 (25336)
Invested
$139.23
Value
$130.28
PnL
-$8.96
Record
50%
24858-24564 (49422)
Invested
$111.08
Value
$125.31
PnL
+$14.24
Record
46%
7988-9443 (17431)
Invested
$14.8
Value
$13.32
PnL
-$0.37
Record
58%
28421-20980 (49401)
Invested
$4.39
Value
$4.39
PnL
-$0
Record
50%
33199-32726 (65925)
Invested
$71.39
Value
$2.83
PnL
-$68.56
Record
59%
45380-31733 (77113)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$2.47
Value
$2.42
PnL
-$0.05
Record
52%
4004-3650 (7654)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.