Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2026-10-31?

10 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (91%) · No at 61¢ · $11K held · ends Oct 31

Yes40¢No60¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 91%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.9K

Combined PnL

$101.03

Smart Money Entry

62.8¢ → 60.5¢

-4% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 61%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 11 top traders (91%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes40%

No61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$5.7K

Total Shares8,844

Combined PnL+$99.99

Yes1 trader

Total Value$78.21

Total Shares209

Combined PnL+$1.04

No — 91%Yes — 9%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Noavg 63¢	$4.2K	$4.3K	+$67.99	58% 41507-30134 (71641)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Noavg 62.2¢	$3.5K	$3.6K	+$59.25	59% 45380-31733 (77113)
└ No leg	Noavg 62.2¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	+$9.55
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 36¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$49.7
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Yesavg 38¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$36.76	50% 24858-24564 (49422)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 38¢	$976.87	$925.46	-$51.41
└ No leg	Noavg 62¢	$454.36	$469.02	+$14.66
CA Cannae	Noavg 62.2¢	$516.56	$531.23	+$14.67	53% 15882-14070 (29952)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow	Noavg 63¢	$314.98	$319.98	+$5	54% 4856-4082 (8938)
0xheavy888	Noavg 62¢	$248	$256	+$8	55% 7057-5659 (12716)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Noavg 62.6¢	$177.84	$161.52	+$1.82	46% 7988-9443 (17431)
└ No leg	Noavg 62.6¢	$122.34	$125.16	+$2.83
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 37¢	$37.37	$36.36	-$1.01
LE LeLynxMalynx	Noavg 62.6¢	$144.67	$147.84	+$3.17	58% 28421-20980 (49401)
0x8ae599cc1fdeb17c95e2af00bd75a38034bd4f22CTR<$100	Yesavg 37¢	$77.17	$78.21	+$1.04	65% 1221-658 (1879)
RN1<$100	Noavg 62¢	$62	$62.5	+$0.5	54% 56326-48479 (104805)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 64¢	$39.4	$39.4	-$0.27	52% 4004-3650 (7654)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 62¢	$24.47	$25.26	+$0.79	49% 12488-12848 (25336)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100	Noavg 63¢	$6.3	$6.4	+$0.1	51% 1402-1349 (2751)
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388<$100	Noavg 64¢	$4.73	$4.66	+$0.04	55% 1727-1417 (3144)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$4,241.22

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$67.99

Record

58%

41507-30134 (71641)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Invested

$3,509.55

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$59.25

Record

59%

45380-31733 (77113)

Both legs:

No$2,311.7262.2¢+$9.55

Yes$1,197.8336¢+$49.7

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$1,431.23

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$36.76

Record

50%

24858-24564 (49422)

Both legs:

Yes$976.8738¢-$51.41

No$454.3662¢+$14.66

Cannae

Invested

$516.56

Value

$531.23

PnL

+$14.67

Record

53%

15882-14070 (29952)

WeBuyHighWeSelllow

Invested

$314.98

Value

$319.98

PnL

+$5

Record

54%

4856-4082 (8938)

0xheavy888

Invested

$248

Value

$256

PnL

+$8

Record

55%

7057-5659 (12716)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Invested

$177.84

Value

$161.52

PnL

+$1.82

Record

46%

7988-9443 (17431)

Both legs:

No$122.3462.6¢+$2.83

Yes$37.3737¢-$1.01

LeLynxMalynx

Invested

$144.67

Value

$147.84

PnL

+$3.17

Record

58%

28421-20980 (49401)

0x8ae599cc1fdeb17c95e2af00bd75a38034bd4f22CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$77.17

Value

$78.21

PnL

+$1.04

Record

65%

1221-658 (1879)

RN1<$100

Invested

$62

Value

$62.5

PnL

+$0.5

Record

54%

56326-48479 (104805)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$39.4

Value

$39.4

PnL

-$0.27

Record

52%

4004-3650 (7654)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$24.47

Value

$25.26

PnL

+$0.79

Record

49%

12488-12848 (25336)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100

Invested

$6.3

Value

$6.4

PnL

+$0.1

Record

51%

1402-1349 (2751)

VD721lsj4938Dk388<$100

Invested

$4.73

Value

$4.66

PnL

+$0.04

Record

55%

1727-1417 (3144)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 61%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 11 top traders (91%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.7%

60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$59.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

159.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.