Will OGC Nice win on 2026-10-31?

10 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 69¢ · $10K held · ends Oct 31

Yes32¢No68¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 71%

Total Value

$9.7K

Combined PnL

$56.17

Smart Money Entry

62.9¢ → 68.5¢

+9% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 14 top traders (71%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes32%

No69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$7.3K

Total Shares10,792

Combined PnL+$123.49

Yes4 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares6,650

Combined PnL-$67.32

No — 71%Yes — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN AnonymousUsername	Noavg 63¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	+$26.2	45% 670-828 (1498)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 63¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$30.13	58% 41507-30134 (71641)
LZ lzh1CTR	Yesavg 37¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$40	43% 460-610 (1070)
CA Cannae	Noavg 63¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$19.64	53% 15882-14070 (29952)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 63¢	$671.58	$682.24	+$10.66	50% 33199-32726 (65925)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 62¢	$595.51	$628.97	+$33.46	50% 24858-24564 (49422)
BB BBQChickenisthebestttCTR	Yesavg 37¢	$554.97	$539.97	-$15	57% 542-402 (944)
Fuentes31CTR	Yesavg 37¢	$350	$340.54	-$9.46	53% 656-579 (1235)
38 38791873984189<$100	Noavg 62.4¢	$85.44	$87.68	+$2.24	46% 7988-9443 (17431)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Yesavg 35.9¢	$73.24	$70.38	-$2.86	59% 45380-31733 (77113)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 62¢	$28.52	$29.44	+$0.92	58% 28421-20980 (49401)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100	Noavg 64¢	$19.2	$19.2	-$0	51% 1402-1349 (2751)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 63¢	$14.49	$14.72	+$0.23	52% 4004-3650 (7654)
LI Lilybaeum<$100	Noavg 64¢	$8.89	$8.89	-$0	62% 13684-8539 (22223)

AnonymousUsername

Invested

$2,664.8

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$26.2

Record

45%

670-828 (1498)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$1,898.16

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$30.13

Record

58%

41507-30134 (71641)

lzh1CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,480

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$40

Record

43%

460-610 (1070)

Cannae

Invested

$1,241.15

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$19.64

Record

53%

15882-14070 (29952)

SnakeBall

Invested

$671.58

Value

$682.24

PnL

+$10.66

Record

50%

33199-32726 (65925)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$595.51

Value

$628.97

PnL

+$33.46

Record

50%

24858-24564 (49422)

BBQChickenisthebestttCTR

Yes

Invested

$554.97

Value

$539.97

PnL

-$15

Record

57%

542-402 (944)

Fuentes31CTR

Yes

Invested

$350

Value

$340.54

PnL

-$9.46

Record

53%

656-579 (1235)

38791873984189<$100

Invested

$85.44

Value

$87.68

PnL

+$2.24

Record

46%

7988-9443 (17431)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$73.24

Value

$70.38

PnL

-$2.86

Record

59%

45380-31733 (77113)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$28.52

Value

$29.44

PnL

+$0.92

Record

58%

28421-20980 (49401)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100

Invested

$19.2

Value

$19.2

PnL

-$0

Record

51%

1402-1349 (2751)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$14.49

Value

$14.72

PnL

+$0.23

Record

52%

4004-3650 (7654)

Lilybaeum<$100

Invested

$8.89

Value

$8.89

PnL

-$0

Record

62%

13684-8539 (22223)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 69%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 14 top traders (71%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.6%

68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$41.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

141.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.