Will OGC Nice vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901 end in a draw?

13 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold No (62%) · No at 87¢ · $53K held · ends Oct 31

Yes14¢No86¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 62%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$53.4K

Combined PnL

-$714.32

Smart Money Entry

72¢ → 86.5¢

+20% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 87%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 21 top traders (62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes14%

No87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No13 traders

Total Value$34.0K

Total Shares40,447

Combined PnL+$4.2K

Yes8 traders

Total Value$19.3K

Total Shares86,065

Combined PnL$-4.9K

No — 62%Yes — 38%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 71.5¢	$15.6K	$18.3K	+$2.7K	50% 24858-24564 (49422)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR	Yesavg 28.8¢	$11.4K	$11.2K	-$119.29	46% 430-505 (935)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 73¢	$5.5K	$6.5K	+$1.0K	59% 45380-31733 (77113)
PU purplegattoCTR	Yesavg 27.4¢	$9.6K	$5.1K	$-4.5K	50% 5840-5943 (11783)
FO Forecastication2CTR	Yesavg 27.9¢	$3.1K	$2.8K	-$261.5	50% 6970-6970 (13940)
CA Cannae	Noavg 72¢	$2.6K	$2.8K	+$145.44	53% 15882-14070 (29952)
RN1	Noavg 71¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$15.23	54% 56326-48479 (104805)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 72¢	$1.7K	$2.1K	+$327.95	49% 12488-12848 (25336)
LI Lilybaeum	Noavg 71¢	$763.48	$758.1	-$5.38	62% 13684-8539 (22223)
heyboy800	Noavg 76¢	$713.07	$685.05	-$28.02	61% 914-578 (1492)
FO foooool	Noavg 73.4¢	$295.56	$348.36	+$52.8	50% 10770-10596 (21366)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Noavg 72.2¢	$209.79	$181.32	-$6.71	46% 7988-9443 (17431)
└ No leg	Noavg 72.2¢	$119.54	$143.15	+$23.61
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 24.1¢	$68.05	$38.17	-$30.32
BE Betziko	Noavg 72.4¢	$147.19	$149.53	+$2.34	54% 6194-5243 (11437)
OM omnibus-076daa	Noavg 86¢	$147.52	$146.66	-$0.86	49% 18995-19405 (38400)
AN AnonymousUsername	Noavg 73¢	$100.04	$104.15	+$4.11	45% 670-828 (1498)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100	Yesavg 26.2¢	$41.09	$41.5	+$0.42	52% 13728-12531 (26259)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Yesavg 24¢	$46.46	$40.68	-$5.78	38% 3209-5230 (8439)
poshposhCTR<$100	Yesavg 23¢	$19.55	$22.94	+$3.4	59% 9935-6911 (16846)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$28.8	$21.85	-$6.95	58% 18584-13649 (32233)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 73.7¢	$13.45	$13.41	-$0.04	52% 4004-3650 (7654)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100	Noavg 75¢	$7.5	$7.45	-$0.05	51% 1402-1349 (2751)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR<$100	Yesavg 27¢	$7.29	$6.48	-$0.81	54% 4856-4082 (8938)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$15,580.64

Value

$18.3K

PnL

+$2.7K

Record

50%

24858-24564 (49422)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR

Yes

Invested

$11,362.2

Value

$11.2K

PnL

-$119.29

Record

46%

430-505 (935)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$5,461.72

Value

$6.5K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

59%

45380-31733 (77113)

purplegattoCTR

Yes

Invested

$9,603.44

Value

$5.1K

PnL

$-4.5K

Record

50%

5840-5943 (11783)

Forecastication2CTR

Yes

Invested

$3,092

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$261.5

Record

50%

6970-6970 (13940)

Cannae

Invested

$2,617.96

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$145.44

Record

53%

15882-14070 (29952)

RN1

Invested

$2,162.66

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$15.23

Record

54%

56326-48479 (104805)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$1,749.06

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$327.95

Record

49%

12488-12848 (25336)

Lilybaeum

Invested

$763.48

Value

$758.1

PnL

-$5.38

Record

62%

13684-8539 (22223)

heyboy800

Invested

$713.07

Value

$685.05

PnL

-$28.02

Record

61%

914-578 (1492)

foooool

Invested

$295.56

Value

$348.36

PnL

+$52.8

Record

50%

10770-10596 (21366)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Invested

$209.79

Value

$181.32

PnL

-$6.71

Record

46%

7988-9443 (17431)

Both legs:

No$119.5472.2¢+$23.61

Yes$68.0524.1¢-$30.32

Betziko

Invested

$147.19

Value

$149.53

PnL

+$2.34

Record

54%

6194-5243 (11437)

omnibus-076daa

Invested

$147.52

Value

$146.66

PnL

-$0.86

Record

49%

18995-19405 (38400)

AnonymousUsername

Invested

$100.04

Value

$104.15

PnL

+$4.11

Record

45%

670-828 (1498)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$41.09

Value

$41.5

PnL

+$0.42

Record

52%

13728-12531 (26259)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$46.46

Value

$40.68

PnL

-$5.78

Record

38%

3209-5230 (8439)

poshposhCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.55

Value

$22.94

PnL

+$3.4

Record

59%

9935-6911 (16846)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.8

Value

$21.85

PnL

-$6.95

Record

58%

18584-13649 (32233)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$13.45

Value

$13.41

PnL

-$0.04

Record

52%

4004-3650 (7654)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100

Invested

$7.5

Value

$7.45

PnL

-$0.05

Record

51%

1402-1349 (2751)

WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.29

Value

$6.48

PnL

-$0.81

Record

54%

4856-4082 (8938)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 87%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 21 top traders (62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.0%

86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.