Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (100%). 5 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

OGC Nice vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901: Both Teams to Score

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (45%) · No at 0.1¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 31

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 45%

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

$-1.4K

Smart Money Entry

36.6¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 11 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares2,028

Combined PnL+$607.37

No5 traders

Total Value$107.97

Total Shares5,731

Combined PnL$-2.0K

Yes — 55%No — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0xheavy888	Yesavg 64¢	$512	$796	+$284	55% 7057-5659 (12716)
VeryLucky888	Yesavg 63.5¢	$373.32	$583.61	+$210.29	58% 41507-30134 (71641)
38 38791873984189	Yesavg 66.4¢	$409.71	$492.56	+$114.85	46% 7988-9443 (17431)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Noavg 35.4¢	$69.41	$72.57	+$3.16	50% 33199-32726 (65925)
FO foooool<$100	Yesavg 62¢	$48.97	$48.19	-$0.78	50% 10770-10596 (21366)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Yesavg 64¢	$41.6	$41.6	-$0.98	50% 6970-6970 (13940)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Noavg 36.8¢	$2.0K	$27.19	$-2.0K	59% 45380-31733 (77113)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Noavg 35¢	$7.74	$8.18	+$0.44	53% 15882-14070 (29952)
HRTrading<$100	Yesavg 79¢	$2.35	$2.34	-$0.01	52% 4004-3650 (7654)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Noavg 38¢	$18.39	$0.02	-$18.36	49% 12488-12848 (25336)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Noavg 11.2¢	$3.09	$0.01	-$3.08	38% 3209-5230 (8439)

0xheavy888

Yes

Invested

$512

Value

$796

PnL

+$284

Record

55%

7057-5659 (12716)

VeryLucky888

Yes

Invested

$373.32

Value

$583.61

PnL

+$210.29

Record

58%

41507-30134 (71641)

38791873984189

Yes

Invested

$409.71

Value

$492.56

PnL

+$114.85

Record

46%

7988-9443 (17431)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Invested

$69.41

Value

$72.57

PnL

+$3.16

Record

50%

33199-32726 (65925)

foooool<$100

Yes

Invested

$48.97

Value

$48.19

PnL

-$0.78

Record

50%

10770-10596 (21366)

Forecastication2<$100

Yes

Invested

$41.6

Value

$41.6

PnL

-$0.98

Record

50%

6970-6970 (13940)

UpTheBluesCTR

Invested

$2,001.21

Value

$27.19

PnL

$-2.0K

Record

59%

45380-31733 (77113)

CannaeCTR<$100

Invested

$7.74

Value

$8.18

PnL

+$0.44

Record

53%

15882-14070 (29952)

HRTrading<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.35

Value

$2.34

PnL

-$0.01

Record

52%

4004-3650 (7654)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Invested

$18.39

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$18.36

Record

49%

12488-12848 (25336)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Invested

$3.09

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$3.08

Record

38%

3209-5230 (8439)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 11 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.