Olympique Lyonnais vs. Angers SCO: O/U 2.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (80%) · Over at 59¢ · $796 held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 80%
$795.55
$9.9
57¢ → 58.5¢
+3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AN AnonymousUsername | Overavg 57¢ | $358.53 | $356.06 | +$9.21 | 72% 6827-2619 (9446) |
UP UpTheBlues | Overavg 57¢ | $204.06 | $207.64 | +$5.37 | 59% 46876-33139 (80015) |
SE sentrioCTR | Underavg 43.7¢ | $206.85 | $198.92 | -$5.56 | 50% 24943-24626 (49569) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Overavg 57¢ | $28.94 | $29.45 | +$0.76 | 53% 16112-14276 (30388) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Overavg 56¢ | $3.36 | $3.48 | +$0.12 | 53% 5597-5025 (10622) |
Invested
$358.53
Value
$356.06
PnL
+$9.21
Record
72%
6827-2619 (9446)
Invested
$204.06
Value
$207.64
PnL
+$5.37
Record
59%
46876-33139 (80015)
Invested
$206.85
Value
$198.92
PnL
-$5.56
Record
50%
24943-24626 (49569)
Invested
$28.94
Value
$29.45
PnL
+$0.76
Record
53%
16112-14276 (30388)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$3.36
Value
$3.48
PnL
+$0.12
Record
53%
5597-5025 (10622)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.