Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (74%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Olympique Lyonnais vs. Angers SCO: O/U 1.5
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 26¢ · $409 held · ended Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
Under
6
Under 50%
$409.35
-$71.41
24.3¢ → 26¢
+7% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 26%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 74%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 28.7¢ | $230.93 | $197.1 | -$33.83 | 59% 46920-33177 (80097) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Underavg 21¢ | $225.95 | $188.29 | -$37.66 | 50% 33863-33445 (67308) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Overavg 80¢ | $11.71 | $11.79 | +$0.07 | 50% 25666-25500 (51166) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Underavg 26.1¢ | $6.13 | $5.75 | -$0.38 | 54% 57170-49418 (106588) |
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100 | Overavg 77¢ | $4.77 | $5.12 | +$0.34 | 53% 2250-1980 (4230) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Overavg 80¢ | $1.27 | $1.31 | +$0.04 | 53% 16119-14285 (30404) |
Invested
$230.93
Value
$197.1
PnL
-$33.83
Record
59%
46920-33177 (80097)
Invested
$225.95
Value
$188.29
PnL
-$37.66
Record
50%
33863-33445 (67308)
Invested
$11.71
Value
$11.79
PnL
+$0.07
Record
50%
25666-25500 (51166)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$6.13
Value
$5.75
PnL
-$0.38
Record
54%
57170-49418 (106588)
Invested
$4.77
Value
$5.12
PnL
+$0.34
Record
53%
2250-1980 (4230)
Invested
$1.27
Value
$1.31
PnL
+$0.04
Record
53%
16119-14285 (30404)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
26.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.