Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Olympique Lyonnais, while the market favors Angers SCO (55%). 1 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Olympique Lyonnais (-1.5)
1 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Olympique Lyonnais (14%) · Olympique Lyonnais at 46¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Olympique Lyonnais
7
Olympique Lyonnais 14%
$1.2K
-$135.78
Research grade
NeutralOlympique Lyonnais at 46%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 7 top traders (14%)Underdog side (market favors Angers SCO 55%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
10h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Olympique Lyonnais. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Olympique Lyonnaisavg 43.9¢ | $900.42 | $769.44 | -$130.98 | 50% 25666-25500 (51166) |
UP UpTheBlues | Angers SCOavg 57.9¢ | $210.94 | $202.16 | -$8.78 | 59% 46920-33177 (80097) |
LZ lzh1<$100 | Angers SCOavg 56.4¢ | $92.11 | $93.11 | +$1 | 43% 471-634 (1105) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Angers SCOavg 56¢ | $75 | $43.13 | +$1.13 | 57% 29237-21622 (50859) |
AN AnonymousUsername<$100 | Angers SCOavg 54¢ | $33.1 | $34.62 | +$1.52 | 72% 6831-2625 (9456) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Angers SCOavg 54¢ | $7.32 | $7.72 | +$0.34 | 53% 16119-14285 (30404) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Angers SCOavg 57¢ | $2.65 | $2.65 | -$0 | 50% 33863-33445 (67308) |
Invested
$900.42
Value
$769.44
PnL
-$130.98
Record
50%
25666-25500 (51166)
Invested
$210.94
Value
$202.16
PnL
-$8.78
Record
59%
46920-33177 (80097)
Invested
$92.11
Value
$93.11
PnL
+$1
Record
43%
471-634 (1105)
Invested
$75
Value
$43.13
PnL
+$1.13
Record
57%
29237-21622 (50859)
Invested
$33.1
Value
$34.62
PnL
+$1.52
Record
72%
6831-2625 (9456)
Invested
$7.32
Value
$7.72
PnL
+$0.34
Record
53%
16119-14285 (30404)
Invested
$2.65
Value
$2.65
PnL
-$0
Record
50%
33863-33445 (67308)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.