Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-10-31?
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (29%) · Yes at 70¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
7
Yes 29%
$2.8K
$30.78
69¢ → 69.5¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 70%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DA darkumbreon88 | Yesavg 69¢ | $1.9K | $1.9K | +$14.09 | 65% 1758-962 (2720) |
BO BoggsFromShawshankCTR | Noavg 30¢ | $289.2 | $294.02 | +$4.82 | 51% 1097-1058 (2155) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Noavg 30¢ | $252.87 | $257.08 | +$4.21 | 50% 33863-33445 (67308) |
CA CannaeCTR | Noavg 30¢ | $114 | $115.9 | +$1.9 | 53% 16119-14285 (30404) |
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR | Noavg 30¢ | $108.59 | $105.96 | +$5.3 | 72% 6830-2625 (9455) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Noavg 30¢ | $27.9 | $28.37 | +$0.46 | 57% 29237-21620 (50857) |
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100 | Yesavg 69¢ | $8.83 | $8.83 | -$0 | 53% 2250-1980 (4230) |
Invested
$1,943.84
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$14.09
Record
65%
1758-962 (2720)
Invested
$289.2
Value
$294.02
PnL
+$4.82
Record
51%
1097-1058 (2155)
Invested
$252.87
Value
$257.08
PnL
+$4.21
Record
50%
33863-33445 (67308)
Invested
$114
Value
$115.9
PnL
+$1.9
Record
53%
16119-14285 (30404)
Invested
$108.59
Value
$105.96
PnL
+$5.3
Record
72%
6830-2625 (9455)
Invested
$27.9
Value
$28.37
PnL
+$0.46
Record
57%
29237-21620 (50857)
Invested
$8.83
Value
$8.83
PnL
-$0
Record
53%
2250-1980 (4230)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.