Olympique Lyonnais vs. Angers SCO: 1st Half O/U 1.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 67%
$2.2K
$405.12
69.3¢ → 100¢
+44% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 70.1¢ | $1.1K | $1.6K | +$485.93 | 59% 46920-33177 (80097) |
 RN1 | Underavg 68¢ | $637.5 | $553.13 | -$84.38 | 54% 57170-49418 (106588) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Overavg 38¢ | $16.69 | $18.01 | +$1.32 | 57% 29237-21622 (50859) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Underavg 64¢ | $4.44 | $4.1 | -$0.35 | 48% 8966-9599 (18565) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Overavg 12¢ | $1.36 | $3.98 | +$2.61 | 49% 13022-13588 (26610) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 60¢ | $1.05 | $1.03 | -$0.02 | 53% 5642-5057 (10699) |
Invested
$1,142.76
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$485.93
Record
59%
46920-33177 (80097)
RN1Invested
$637.5
Value
$553.13
PnL
-$84.38
Record
54%
57170-49418 (106588)
Invested
$16.69
Value
$18.01
PnL
+$1.32
Record
57%
29237-21622 (50859)
Invested
$4.44
Value
$4.1
PnL
-$0.35
Record
48%
8966-9599 (18565)
Invested
$1.36
Value
$3.98
PnL
+$2.61
Record
49%
13022-13588 (26610)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$1.05
Value
$1.03
PnL
-$0.02
Record
53%
5642-5057 (10699)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.