Will Olympique Lyonnais vs. Angers SCO end in a draw?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 88¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 1

Yes13¢No87¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

-$160.51

Smart Money Entry

80.1¢ → 87.5¢

+9% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 88%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes13%

No88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares1,720

Combined PnL+$31.27

Yes4 traders

Total Value$326.08

Total Shares2,236

Combined PnL-$191.78

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 80¢	$760.3	$774.56	+$14.26	50% 25666-25500 (51166)
CA Cannae	Noavg 80¢	$413.94	$421.71	+$7.76	53% 16119-14285 (30404)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Yesavg 22.4¢	$495.82	$305.9	-$189.92	59% 46920-33177 (80097)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Noavg 80.1¢	$108.15	$116.78	+$8.63	52% 13930-12706 (26636)
AN AnonymousUsername<$100	Noavg 81¢	$75.99	$76.46	+$0.47	72% 6831-2625 (9456)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 81.6¢	$14.7	$14.78	+$0.08	48% 8966-9599 (18565)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$14.15	$13.09	-$1.06	61% 13793-8671 (22464)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 19¢	$5.7	$4.8	-$0.9	58% 18784-13847 (32631)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 81¢	$8.56	$4.33	+$0.08	58% 42700-31074 (73774)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$2.2	$2.3	+$0.1	53% 5642-5057 (10699)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$760.3

Value

$774.56

PnL

+$14.26

Record

50%

25666-25500 (51166)

Cannae

Invested

$413.94

Value

$421.71

PnL

+$7.76

Record

53%

16119-14285 (30404)

UpTheBluesCTR

Yes

Invested

$495.82

Value

$305.9

PnL

-$189.92

Record

59%

46920-33177 (80097)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Invested

$108.15

Value

$116.78

PnL

+$8.63

Record

52%

13930-12706 (26636)

AnonymousUsername<$100

Invested

$75.99

Value

$76.46

PnL

+$0.47

Record

72%

6831-2625 (9456)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$14.7

Value

$14.78

PnL

+$0.08

Record

48%

8966-9599 (18565)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.15

Value

$13.09

PnL

-$1.06

Record

61%

13793-8671 (22464)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.7

Value

$4.8

PnL

-$0.9

Record

58%

18784-13847 (32631)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$8.56

Value

$4.33

PnL

+$0.08

Record

58%

42700-31074 (73774)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.2

Value

$2.3

PnL

+$0.1

Record

53%

5642-5057 (10699)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 88%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.0%

87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

112.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.