Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (68%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Olympique Lyonnais vs. Angers SCO: Both Teams to Score

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 33¢ · $488 held · ended Nov 1

Yes33¢No67¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$488.14

Combined PnL

$13.4

Smart Money Entry

46.8¢ → 32.5¢

-31% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 33%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 68%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes33%

No68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$116.87

Total Shares221

Combined PnL+$13.67

No3 traders

Total Value$120.89

Total Shares255

Combined PnL-$0.27

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Yesavg 44¢	$246.22	$250.39	+$4.17	59% 46920-33177 (80097)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 44¢	$153.56	$137.86	-$15.7
└ No leg	Noavg 49.8¢	$92.66	$112.53	+$19.87
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Yesavg 46¢	$74.75	$86.13	+$11.38	50% 11182-10991 (22173)
AN AnonymousUsername<$100	Noavg 46¢	$76.06	$77.71	+$1.65	72% 6831-2625 (9456)
CA Cannae<$100	Noavg 50¢	$41.48	$38.99	-$2.49	53% 16119-14285 (30404)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 49¢	$27.44	$29.68	+$2.24	49% 13022-13588 (26610)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 55¢	$3.63	$4.19	+$0.56	53% 5642-5057 (10699)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 50¢	$1	$1.06	+$0.06	58% 42700-31074 (73774)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$246.22

Value

$250.39

PnL

+$4.17

Record

59%

46920-33177 (80097)

Both legs:

Invested

$74.75

Value

$86.13

PnL

+$11.38

Record

50%

11182-10991 (22173)

AnonymousUsername<$100

Invested

$76.06

Value

$77.71

PnL

+$1.65

Record

72%

6831-2625 (9456)

Cannae<$100

Invested

$41.48

Value

$38.99

PnL

-$2.49

Record

53%

16119-14285 (30404)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.44

Value

$29.68

PnL

+$2.24

Record

49%

13022-13588 (26610)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$3.63

Value

$4.19

PnL

+$0.56

Record

53%

5642-5057 (10699)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$1.06

PnL

+$0.06

Record

58%

42700-31074 (73774)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 33%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 68%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance34.6%

32.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$188.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

288.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.