Will Angers SCO win on 2026-10-31?

9 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 98¢ · $10K held · ended Nov 1

Yes2¢No98¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.3K

Combined PnL

$134.69

Smart Money Entry

89.3¢ → 97.8¢

+9% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 15 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$8.6K

Total Shares9,428

Combined PnL+$102.88

Yes6 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares11,618

Combined PnL+$31.81

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XW xwingboy	Noavg 89¢	$5.0K	$4.9K	-$140.45	64% 301-169 (470)
RN1	Noavg 89.2¢	$2.7K	$2.9K	+$258.39	54% 57170-49418 (106588)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 11.2¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$34.07	50% 25666-25500 (51166)
CA CannaeARB<$100	Noavg 88¢	$380.33	$389.8	+$9.47	53% 16119-14285 (30404)
└ No leg	Noavg 88¢	$315.04	$309.67	-$5.37
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 11¢	$65.29	$80.13	+$14.84
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Noavg 90.9¢	$294.08	$298.7	+$4.62	52% 13930-12706 (26636)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 97¢	$248.98	$248.95	-$0.03	50% 33863-33445 (67308)
SH SharkVision	Noavg 89¢	$100.09	$104.26	+$4.17	71% 1382-572 (1954)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Noavg 91.4¢	$74.98	$64.54	-$10.44	59% 46920-33177 (80097)
LI Lilybaeum<$100	Noavg 89¢	$75.9	$58.2	-$17.7	61% 13793-8671 (22464)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 88¢	$51.04	$55.1	+$4.06	57% 29237-21622 (50859)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 11.3¢	$43.52	$47.95	+$4.44	49% 13022-13588 (26610)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$10.77	$11.26	+$0.49	50% 11182-10991 (22173)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 93¢	$9.68	$9.94	+$0.26	48% 8966-9599 (18565)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$5.49	$5.74	+$0.25	72% 6831-2625 (9456)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 11.9¢	$9.2	$1.78	-$7.42	53% 5642-5057 (10699)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$1.06	$1.04	-$0.02	50% 19451-19817 (39268)

xwingboy

Invested

$5,000

Value

$4.9K

PnL

-$140.45

Record

64%

301-169 (470)

RN1

Invested

$2,650.38

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$258.39

Record

54%

57170-49418 (106588)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,227.47

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$34.07

Record

50%

25666-25500 (51166)

CannaeARB<$100

Invested

$380.33

Value

$389.8

PnL

+$9.47

Record

53%

16119-14285 (30404)

Both legs:

No$315.0488¢-$5.37

Yes$65.2911¢+$14.84

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Invested

$294.08

Value

$298.7

PnL

+$4.62

Record

52%

13930-12706 (26636)

SnakeBall

Invested

$248.98

Value

$248.95

PnL

-$0.03

Record

50%

33863-33445 (67308)

SharkVision

Invested

$100.09

Value

$104.26

PnL

+$4.17

Record

71%

1382-572 (1954)

UpTheBlues<$100

Invested

$74.98

Value

$64.54

PnL

-$10.44

Record

59%

46920-33177 (80097)

Lilybaeum<$100

Invested

$75.9

Value

$58.2

PnL

-$17.7

Record

61%

13793-8671 (22464)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$51.04

Value

$55.1

PnL

+$4.06

Record

57%

29237-21622 (50859)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$43.52

Value

$47.95

PnL

+$4.44

Record

49%

13022-13588 (26610)

fooooolCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.77

Value

$11.26

PnL

+$0.49

Record

50%

11182-10991 (22173)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$9.68

Value

$9.94

PnL

+$0.26

Record

48%

8966-9599 (18565)

AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.49

Value

$5.74

PnL

+$0.25

Record

72%

6831-2625 (9456)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.2

Value

$1.78

PnL

-$7.42

Record

53%

5642-5057 (10699)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.06

Value

$1.04

PnL

-$0.02

Record

50%

19451-19817 (39268)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 15 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.8%

97.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.