FC Lorient vs. Stade Brestois 29: O/U 6.5
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 99¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
Under
4
Under 75%
$8.2K
$3.77
99.2¢ → 99.2¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Underavg 99.2¢ | $4.8K | $4.8K | -$13.23 | 54% 58154-50376 (108530) |
SE sentrio | Underavg 99.2¢ | $2.8K | $2.8K | +$1.42 | 50% 25009-24731 (49740) |
 HRTrading | Underavg 99.2¢ | $494.84 | $494.94 | +$0.1 | 53% 6378-5764 (12142) |
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100 | Overavg 0.8¢ | $28.72 | $44.2 | +$15.48 | 46% 9230-10942 (20172) |
RN1Invested
$4,780.22
Value
$4.8K
PnL
-$13.23
Record
54%
58154-50376 (108530)
Invested
$2,835.35
Value
$2.8K
PnL
+$1.42
Record
50%
25009-24731 (49740)
HRTradingInvested
$494.84
Value
$494.94
PnL
+$0.1
Record
53%
6378-5764 (12142)
Invested
$28.72
Value
$44.2
PnL
+$15.48
Record
46%
9230-10942 (20172)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.