Lille OSC vs. Racing Club de Lens: O/U 2.5

17 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold Under (81%) · Under at 66¢ · $85K held · ended Oct 30

Over35¢Under65¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 81%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$85.0K

Combined PnL

$1.3K

Smart Money Entry

52.4¢ → 65.5¢

+25% since entry · 17 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 66%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
$50k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +10.3 % a trade (n 172), picked after seeing the table. Full year, out of sample: $50k+ on the side −2.7 % (n 641, 95 % CI −7.6 to +2.9); 80 %+ with $50k+ on a favourite +0.4 % (n 1,558, 95 % CI −2.3 to +3.0): no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

17 of 21 top traders (81%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over35%

Under66%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under17 traders

Total Value$77.7K

Total Shares145,231

Combined PnL+$1.3K

Over4 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,324

Combined PnL-$10.31

Under — 81%Over — 19%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrUnder 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Under 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SP SparYel	Underavg 53¢	$50.0K	$49.5K	-$471.7	50% 21-21 (42)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3	Underavg 51¢	$8.4K	$8.7K	+$248.51	50% 2499-2487 (4986)
RN1	Underavg 51.7¢	$5.5K	$6.7K	+$1.1K	54% 56331-48482 (104813)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 51.6¢	$4.0K	$4.0K	+$4.68	50% 24858-24564 (49422)
└ Under leg	Underavg 51.6¢	$2.1K	$2.4K	+$316.89
└ Over leg	Overavg 48.3¢	$1.9K	$1.6K	-$312.21
CA Cannae	Underavg 51.1¢	$3.6K	$3.7K	+$154.87	53% 15882-14070 (29952)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow	Underavg 51.3¢	$2.2K	$2.3K	+$51.5	54% 4856-4082 (8938)
ZH zhuz632	Underavg 52¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$19.16	51% 243-233 (476)
AN AnonymousUsernameARB<$100	Underavg 51.5¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$43.52	45% 670-829 (1499)
└ Under leg	Underavg 51.5¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$53.46
└ Over leg	Overavg 47.3¢	$564.62	$554.68	-$9.94
VeryLucky888	Underavg 51.5¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$72.19	58% 41515-30150 (71665)
HI hi774c	Underavg 51¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$29.55	52% 4715-4427 (9142)
0X 0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731CTR	Overavg 48¢	$864	$864	+$0	32% 723-1549 (2272)
HG hg5521199	Underavg 53¢	$875.03	$858.52	-$8.25	49% 57-60 (117)
0xheavy888	Underavg 51.3¢	$308	$321	+$13	55% 7059-5661 (12720)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 41.4¢	$332.06	$232.68	-$15.01	46% 8006-9466 (17472)
└ Over leg	Overavg 41.4¢	$198.44	$167.68	-$30.75
└ Under leg	Underavg 51¢	$51	$65	+$15.74
LE LeLynxMalynx	Underavg 51.7¢	$171.09	$183.69	+$12.6	58% 28428-20989 (49417)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Overavg 49.9¢	$184.6	$173.9	-$10.7	51% 1405-1351 (2756)
AN Anon455	Underavg 51¢	$132.61	$161.43	+$6.32	56% 2860-2289 (5149)
us391	Underavg 51.1¢	$1.5K	$112.22	+$27.41	51% 1672-1622 (3294)
SL slimjoe	Underavg 51¢	$99.96	$102.9	+$2.94	51% 6490-6153 (12643)
BE berlinskies<$100	Underavg 52¢	$72.8	$73.47	+$0.67	58% 5831-4282 (10113)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100	Overavg 48.9¢	$45.75	$46.32	+$0.57	53% 2145-1905 (4050)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Overavg 35.3¢	$21.16	$20.98	-$0.19	62% 13685-8540 (22225)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 64¢	$17.77	$18.05	+$0.28	50% 33199-32726 (65925)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 53¢	$3.18	$3.03	-$0.15	52% 4016-3659 (7675)

SparYel

Under

Invested

$50,000

Value

$49.5K

PnL

-$471.7

Record

50%

21-21 (42)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3

Under

Invested

$8,449.48

Value

$8.7K

PnL

+$248.51

Record

50%

2499-2487 (4986)

RN1

Under

Invested

$5,516.88

Value

$6.7K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

54%

56331-48482 (104813)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$3,993.23

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$4.68

Record

50%

24858-24564 (49422)

Both legs:

Under$2,067.551.6¢+$316.89

Over$1,925.7348.3¢-$312.21

Cannae

Under

Invested

$3,562.69

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$154.87

Record

53%

15882-14070 (29952)

WeBuyHighWeSelllow

Under

Invested

$2,206

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$51.5

Record

54%

4856-4082 (8938)

zhuz632

Under

Invested

$1,992.99

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$19.16

Record

51%

243-233 (476)

AnonymousUsernameARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,928.37

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$43.52

Record

45%

670-829 (1499)

Both legs:

Under$1,363.7551.5¢+$53.46

Over$564.6247.3¢-$9.94

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$1,880.16

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$72.19

Record

58%

41515-30150 (71665)

hi774c

Under

Invested

$1,004.55

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$29.55

Record

52%

4715-4427 (9142)

0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731CTR

Over

Invested

$864

Value

$864

PnL

+$0

Record

32%

723-1549 (2272)

hg5521199

Under

Invested

$875.03

Value

$858.52

PnL

-$8.25

Record

49%

57-60 (117)

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$308

Value

$321

PnL

+$13

Record

55%

7059-5661 (12720)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$332.06

Value

$232.68

PnL

-$15.01

Record

46%

8006-9466 (17472)

Both legs:

Over$198.4441.4¢-$30.75

Under$5151¢+$15.74

LeLynxMalynx

Under

Invested

$171.09

Value

$183.69

PnL

+$12.6

Record

58%

28428-20989 (49417)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Over

Invested

$184.6

Value

$173.9

PnL

-$10.7

Record

51%

1405-1351 (2756)

Anon455

Under

Invested

$132.61

Value

$161.43

PnL

+$6.32

Record

56%

2860-2289 (5149)

us391

Under

Invested

$1,454.32

Value

$112.22

PnL

+$27.41

Record

51%

1672-1622 (3294)

slimjoe

Under

Invested

$99.96

Value

$102.9

PnL

+$2.94

Record

51%

6490-6153 (12643)

berlinskies<$100

Under

Invested

$72.8

Value

$73.47

PnL

+$0.67

Record

58%

5831-4282 (10113)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$45.75

Value

$46.32

PnL

+$0.57

Record

53%

2145-1905 (4050)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$21.16

Value

$20.98

PnL

-$0.19

Record

62%

13685-8540 (22225)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$17.77

Value

$18.05

PnL

+$0.28

Record

50%

33199-32726 (65925)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$3.18

Value

$3.03

PnL

-$0.15

Record

52%

4016-3659 (7675)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 66%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
$50k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +10.3 % a trade (n 172), picked after seeing the table. Full year, out of sample: $50k+ on the side −2.7 % (n 641, 95 % CI −7.6 to +2.9); 80 %+ with $50k+ on a favourite +0.4 % (n 1,558, 95 % CI −2.3 to +3.0): no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

17 of 21 top traders (81%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrUnder 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Under 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.6%

65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$47.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

147.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.