Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-10-30?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 66¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$3.4K
$15.85
64.7¢ → 65.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 66%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 65¢ | $1.8K | $1.8K | +$13.86 | 59% 45380-31733 (77113) |
LZ lzh1CTR | Yesavg 35¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | -$0 | 43% 460-610 (1070) |
AN AnonymousUsername | Noavg 62¢ | $7 | $194.28 | +$1.72 | 45% 670-828 (1498) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 64¢ | $22.4 | $22.75 | +$0.18 | 58% 28421-20980 (49401) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 34.9¢ | $5.67 | $5.69 | +$0.1 | 52% 4004-3650 (7654) |
Invested
$1,801.15
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$13.86
Record
59%
45380-31733 (77113)
Invested
$1,400
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$0
Record
43%
460-610 (1070)
Invested
$7
Value
$194.28
PnL
+$1.72
Record
45%
670-828 (1498)
Invested
$22.4
Value
$22.75
PnL
+$0.18
Record
58%
28421-20980 (49401)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$5.67
Value
$5.69
PnL
+$0.1
Record
52%
4004-3650 (7654)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.