Will Lille OSC win on 2026-10-30?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 66¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$1.5K
$11
63.1¢ → 65.5¢
+4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 66%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xbCa82fF9891c5358b33D565C4F4739e4d812b680-1779481574004CTR | Yesavg 37¢ | $555 | $615 | +$60 | 56% 150-116 (266) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 63¢ | $597.65 | $559.7 | -$37.95 | 50% 24840-24547 (49387) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 62¢ | $407.23 | $157.49 | -$13.4 | 58% 41458-30076 (71534) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989 | Noavg 65¢ | $118.02 | $118.92 | +$0.91 | 53% 5572-4928 (10500) |
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 37¢ | $13.32 | $14.76 | +$1.44 | 53% 2142-1904 (4046) |
Invested
$555
Value
$615
PnL
+$60
Record
56%
150-116 (266)
Invested
$597.65
Value
$559.7
PnL
-$37.95
Record
50%
24840-24547 (49387)
VeryLucky888Invested
$407.23
Value
$157.49
PnL
-$13.4
Record
58%
41458-30076 (71534)
Invested
$118.02
Value
$118.92
PnL
+$0.91
Record
53%
5572-4928 (10500)
Invested
$13.32
Value
$14.76
PnL
+$1.44
Record
53%
2142-1904 (4046)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.