Le Havre AC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 4.5

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (44%) · Over at 63¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 30

Over63¢Under37¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 44%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

$18.02

Smart Money Entry

61.2¢ → 62.5¢

+2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 9 top traders (44%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over63%

Under38%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$801.18

Total Shares1,208

Combined PnL+$43.83

Under5 traders

Total Value$255.07

Total Shares676

Combined PnL-$25.81

Over — 44%Under — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 61.8¢	$967.41	$659.81	-$307.6	50% 24858-24564 (49422)
└ Under leg	Underavg 61.8¢	$744.33	$451.88	-$292.45
└ Over leg	Overavg 67.1¢	$223.08	$207.93	-$15.15
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 61¢	$576.63	$591.06	+$14.43	54% 56326-48479 (104805)
└ Over leg	Overavg 61¢	$436.74	$440.01	+$3.27
└ Under leg	Underavg 35.7¢	$139.89	$151.06	+$11.16
SN SnakeBall	Overavg 61¢	$450.41	$454.11	+$3.69	50% 33199-32726 (65925)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 58.4¢	$301.3	$228.98	+$36.41	46% 7988-9443 (17431)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 34.6¢	$183.18	$161.28	-$21.9	59% 45380-31733 (77113)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Overavg 72¢	$99.22	$97.15	-$2.07	53% 2145-1905 (4050)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 73¢	$74.45	$74.45	-$0	58% 28421-20980 (49401)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Overavg 44.5¢	$15.14	$20.94	+$5.8	49% 12488-12848 (25336)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Underavg 44.4¢	$12	$10.67	-$1.33	38% 3209-5230 (8439)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 54.6¢	$7.29	$5.01	-$2.28	52% 4004-3650 (7654)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Underavg 79¢	$3.95	$3.65	-$0.3	50% 10770-10596 (21366)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$967.41

Value

$659.81

PnL

-$307.6

Record

50%

24858-24564 (49422)

Both legs:

Under$744.3361.8¢-$292.45

Over$223.0867.1¢-$15.15

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$576.63

Value

$591.06

PnL

+$14.43

Record

54%

56326-48479 (104805)

Both legs:

Over$436.7461¢+$3.27

Under$139.8935.7¢+$11.16

SnakeBall

Over

Invested

$450.41

Value

$454.11

PnL

+$3.69

Record

50%

33199-32726 (65925)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$301.3

Value

$228.98

PnL

+$36.41

Record

46%

7988-9443 (17431)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$183.18

Value

$161.28

PnL

-$21.9

Record

59%

45380-31733 (77113)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Over

Invested

$99.22

Value

$97.15

PnL

-$2.07

Record

53%

2145-1905 (4050)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$74.45

Value

$74.45

PnL

-$0

Record

58%

28421-20980 (49401)

LuckyLoo<$100

Over

Invested

$15.14

Value

$20.94

PnL

+$5.8

Record

49%

12488-12848 (25336)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$12

Value

$10.67

PnL

-$1.33

Record

38%

3209-5230 (8439)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$7.29

Value

$5.01

PnL

-$2.28

Record

52%

4004-3650 (7654)

fooooolCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.95

Value

$3.65

PnL

-$0.3

Record

50%

10770-10596 (21366)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 63%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 9 top traders (44%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.7%

62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$54.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

154.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.