Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (69%). 6 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Le Havre AC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 2.5
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 32¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 100%
1 arb excluded
$2.3K
$58.86
30.6¢ → 31.5¢
+3% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 32%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Over 69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Underavg 31¢ | $714 | $725.51 | +$11.52 | 50% 24854-24560 (49414) |
HI hi774cCTR | Underavg 30¢ | $600.12 | $630.13 | +$30.01 | 52% 4713-4425 (9138) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 30.7¢ | $460.55 | $473.15 | +$12.59 | 58% 41493-30115 (71608) |
CA CannaeCTR | Underavg 30.7¢ | $189.58 | $194.74 | +$5.16 | 53% 15879-14069 (29948) |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Underavg 30.6¢ | $173.36 | $175.19 | +$1.83 | 46% 7951-9381 (17332) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 30.6¢ | $107 | $110.25 | +$3.25 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 70¢ | $66.36 | $64.94 | -$1.42 | |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 30.4¢ | $111.31 | $111.71 | +$0.4 | 59% 45379-31733 (77112) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Underavg 30.6¢ | $8.01 | $7.2 | -$0.81 | 49% 18981-19394 (38375) |
Invested
$714
Value
$725.51
PnL
+$11.52
Record
50%
24854-24560 (49414)
Invested
$600.12
Value
$630.13
PnL
+$30.01
Record
52%
4713-4425 (9138)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$460.55
Value
$473.15
PnL
+$12.59
Record
58%
41493-30115 (71608)
Invested
$189.58
Value
$194.74
PnL
+$5.16
Record
53%
15879-14069 (29948)
Invested
$173.36
Value
$175.19
PnL
+$1.83
Record
46%
7951-9381 (17332)
Both legs:
Invested
$111.31
Value
$111.71
PnL
+$0.4
Record
59%
45379-31733 (77112)
Invested
$8.01
Value
$7.2
PnL
-$0.81
Record
49%
18981-19394 (38375)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
31.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.