Le Havre AC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5

6 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Over (46%) · Over at 100¢ · $9K held · ended Oct 30

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 46%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.0K

Combined PnL

-$360.46

Smart Money Entry

90¢ → 100¢

+11% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 13 top traders (46%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$7.3K

Total Shares8,015

Combined PnL-$191.04

Under7 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares10,370

Combined PnL-$169.42

Over — 46%Under — 54%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FO Forecastication2	Overavg 87¢	$3.2K	$3.0K	-$164.74	50% 6970-6970 (13940)
ZX zxc368	Overavg 99.9¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$0.96	98% 12939-204 (13143)
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 86.9¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$40.94	50% 24858-24564 (49422)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1	Overavg 87¢	$487.33	$487.33	-$2.8	53% 2145-1905 (4050)
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 12¢	$886.02	$451.53	-$434.49	54% 56326-48479 (104805)
└ Under leg	Underavg 12¢	$696.78	$261.29	-$435.49
└ Over leg	Overavg 95¢	$189.24	$190.24	+$1
AgricultureSecretaryCTR	Underavg 13¢	$433.29	$433.29	-$0	83% 3792-777 (4569)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 13¢	$335.14	$335.14	+$0	50% 33199-32726 (65925)
CA CannaeCTR	Underavg 12.3¢	$307.27	$324.54	+$17.27	53% 15882-14070 (29952)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 84.2¢	$276.11	$288.65	+$17.01	46% 7988-9443 (17431)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 13.8¢	$193.84	$63.41	-$130.43	59% 45380-31733 (77113)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 13¢	$58.52	$20.14	-$38.38	49% 12488-12848 (25336)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Overavg 99¢	$14.85	$14.33	-$0.53	49% 18995-19405 (38400)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 13.1¢	$19.68	$6.74	-$12.94	52% 4004-3650 (7654)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Underavg 5¢	$5	$0.05	-$4.95	38% 3209-5230 (8439)

Forecastication2

Over

Invested

$3,185.06

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$164.74

Record

50%

6970-6970 (13940)

zxc368

Over

Invested

$1,920.57

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$0.96

Record

98%

12939-204 (13143)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$1,650.49

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$40.94

Record

50%

24858-24564 (49422)

hedgevaultmainnet1

Over

Invested

$487.33

Value

$487.33

PnL

-$2.8

Record

53%

2145-1905 (4050)

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$886.02

Value

$451.53

PnL

-$434.49

Record

54%

56326-48479 (104805)

Both legs:

Under$696.7812¢-$435.49

Over$189.2495¢+$1

AgricultureSecretaryCTR

Under

Invested

$433.29

Value

$433.29

PnL

-$0

Record

83%

3792-777 (4569)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$335.14

Value

$335.14

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

33199-32726 (65925)

CannaeCTR

Under

Invested

$307.27

Value

$324.54

PnL

+$17.27

Record

53%

15882-14070 (29952)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$276.11

Value

$288.65

PnL

+$17.01

Record

46%

7988-9443 (17431)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$193.84

Value

$63.41

PnL

-$130.43

Record

59%

45380-31733 (77113)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$58.52

Value

$20.14

PnL

-$38.38

Record

49%

12488-12848 (25336)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Over

Invested

$14.85

Value

$14.33

PnL

-$0.53

Record

49%

18995-19405 (38400)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$19.68

Value

$6.74

PnL

-$12.94

Record

52%

4004-3650 (7654)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$4.95

Record

38%

3209-5230 (8439)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 13 top traders (46%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.