Le Havre AC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 0.5
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (75%) · Over at 100¢ · $13K held · ended Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Over
8
Over 75%
1 arb excluded
$13.2K
$134.74
97.2¢ → 100¢
+3% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Overavg 97.1¢ | $9.1K | $9.1K | +$15.56 | 54% 56326-48479 (104805) |
UP UpTheBlues | Overavg 97.3¢ | $2.5K | $2.6K | +$93.18 | 59% 45380-31733 (77113) |
38 38791873984189 | Overavg 97¢ | $1.1K | $776.53 | +$17.43 | 46% 7988-9443 (17431) |
LU LuckyLoo | Overavg 97.1¢ | $431.84 | $439.87 | +$8.03 | 49% 12488-12848 (25336) |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Overavg 97¢ | $242.97 | $268.89 | +$25.91 | 50% 24858-24564 (49422) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 97¢ | $190.57 | $188.71 | -$1.87 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 2.6¢ | $52.4 | $80.18 | +$27.78 | |
 HRTrading<$100 | Overavg 97.4¢ | $19.95 | $19.94 | -$0.01 | 52% 4004-3650 (7654) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Underavg 2.5¢ | $2.95 | $3.19 | +$0.24 | 50% 10770-10596 (21366) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Overavg 96.1¢ | $2.25 | $2.34 | +$0.09 | 38% 3209-5230 (8439) |
 AgricultureSecretaryCTR<$100 | Underavg 2.3¢ | $1.36 | $1.59 | +$0.24 | 83% 3792-777 (4569) |
RN1Invested
$9,050.48
Value
$9.1K
PnL
+$15.56
Record
54%
56326-48479 (104805)
Invested
$2,488.43
Value
$2.6K
PnL
+$93.18
Record
59%
45380-31733 (77113)
Invested
$1,101.9
Value
$776.53
PnL
+$17.43
Record
46%
7988-9443 (17431)
Invested
$431.84
Value
$439.87
PnL
+$8.03
Record
49%
12488-12848 (25336)
Invested
$242.97
Value
$268.89
PnL
+$25.91
Record
50%
24858-24564 (49422)
Both legs:
HRTrading<$100Invested
$19.95
Value
$19.94
PnL
-$0.01
Record
52%
4004-3650 (7654)
Invested
$2.95
Value
$3.19
PnL
+$0.24
Record
50%
10770-10596 (21366)
Invested
$2.25
Value
$2.34
PnL
+$0.09
Record
38%
3209-5230 (8439)
AgricultureSecretaryCTR<$100Invested
$1.36
Value
$1.59
PnL
+$0.24
Record
83%
3792-777 (4569)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.