Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (81%). 6 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Le Havre AC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Paris Saint-Germain FC O/U 2.5
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 19¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 30
⚠️
Avoid
Under
6
Under 100%
1 arb excluded
$1.8K
$-1.5K
46.7¢ → 19¢
-59% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 19%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Over 81%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBallCTR | Underavg 49¢ | $1.6K | $601.79 | -$948.92 | 50% 33199-32726 (65925) |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Underavg 42.9¢ | $701.04 | $567.64 | -$110.39 | 46% 7988-9443 (17431) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 48¢ | $213.54 | $360.34 | +$146.81 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 42.9¢ | $468.5 | $207.3 | -$257.2 | |
LU LuckyLooCTR | Underavg 39.9¢ | $534.92 | $281.24 | -$253.69 | 49% 12488-12848 (25336) |
P1 P1kasoCTR | Underavg 50¢ | $255.04 | $244.84 | -$10.2 | 63% 754-447 (1201) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 47¢ | $417.31 | $142.09 | -$275.22 | 59% 45380-31733 (77113) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Underavg 37.1¢ | $14.78 | $8.56 | -$6.22 | 38% 3209-5230 (8439) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 52¢ | $1.69 | $1.56 | -$0.13 | 52% 4004-3650 (7654) |
Invested
$1,550.71
Value
$601.79
PnL
-$948.92
Record
50%
33199-32726 (65925)
Invested
$701.04
Value
$567.64
PnL
-$110.39
Record
46%
7988-9443 (17431)
Both legs:
Invested
$534.92
Value
$281.24
PnL
-$253.69
Record
49%
12488-12848 (25336)
Invested
$255.04
Value
$244.84
PnL
-$10.2
Record
63%
754-447 (1201)
Invested
$417.31
Value
$142.09
PnL
-$275.22
Record
59%
45380-31733 (77113)
Invested
$14.78
Value
$8.56
PnL
-$6.22
Record
38%
3209-5230 (8439)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.69
Value
$1.56
PnL
-$0.13
Record
52%
4004-3650 (7654)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
19.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.