Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Le Havre AC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Paris Saint-Germain FC O/U 1.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 30
⚠️
Avoid
Under
5
Under 60%
1 arb excluded
$1.4K
$63.43
25.2¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 24.7¢ | $459.8 | $586 | +$126.2 | 59% 45380-31733 (77113) |
SN SnakeBallARB<$100 | Overavg 68¢ | $462.45 | $478.94 | +$16.49 | 50% 33199-32726 (65925) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 68¢ | $293.68 | $323.91 | +$30.23 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 27.2¢ | $168.77 | $155.03 | -$13.74 | |
38 38791873984189 | Overavg 78.7¢ | $244.67 | $241.3 | -$1.37 | 46% 7988-9443 (17431) |
PL PLACEYOURBETS123CTR | Underavg 26¢ | $54.34 | $103.45 | +$49.11 | 58% 56-40 (96) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Overavg 68¢ | $21.37 | $27.25 | +$5.88 | 38% 3209-5230 (8439) |
LU LuckyLooCTR | Underavg 27¢ | $116.6 | $0.22 | -$116.39 | 49% 12488-12848 (25336) |
Invested
$459.8
Value
$586
PnL
+$126.2
Record
59%
45380-31733 (77113)
Invested
$462.45
Value
$478.94
PnL
+$16.49
Record
50%
33199-32726 (65925)
Both legs:
Invested
$244.67
Value
$241.3
PnL
-$1.37
Record
46%
7988-9443 (17431)
Invested
$54.34
Value
$103.45
PnL
+$49.11
Record
58%
56-40 (96)
Invested
$21.37
Value
$27.25
PnL
+$5.88
Record
38%
3209-5230 (8439)
Invested
$116.6
Value
$0.22
PnL
-$116.39
Record
49%
12488-12848 (25336)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.