Spread: Le Havre AC (-1.5)

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Paris Saint-Germain FC (33%) · Paris Saint-Germain FC at 97¢ · $71K held · ends Oct 30

Le Havre AC3¢Paris Saint-Germain FC97¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Paris Saint-Germain FC

Consensus Traders

Paris Saint-Germain FC 33%

Total Value

$70.9K

Combined PnL

-$242.24

Smart Money Entry

98.1¢ → 97.5¢

-1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralParis Saint-Germain FC at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Paris Saint-Germain FC

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Le Havre AC3%

Paris Saint-Germain FC97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Paris Saint-Germain FC2 traders

Total Value$70.5K

Total Shares72,192

Combined PnL-$297.61

Le Havre AC4 traders

Total Value$378.54

Total Shares17,389

Combined PnL+$55.36

Paris Saint-Germain FC — 33%Le Havre AC — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Paris Saint-Germain FC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleParis Saint-Germain FC 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrLe Havre AC 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedLe Havre AC 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Le Havre AC 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0F 0F62	Paris Saint-Germain FCavg 98.1¢	$70.8K	$70.5K	-$297.52	53% 2066-1862 (3928)
CA CannaeCTR	Le Havre ACavg 1.8¢	$245.75	$293.78	+$48.03	53% 15876-14060 (29936)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Le Havre ACavg 1.9¢	$31.99	$38.31	+$6.31	50% 24837-24541 (49378)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Le Havre ACavg 1.9¢	$36.29	$36.33	+$0.04	52% 3925-3577 (7502)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Paris Saint-Germain FCavg 98¢	$29.4	$29.31	-$0.09	58% 28351-20930 (49281)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Le Havre ACavg 2.1¢	$12.6	$10.12	+$0.97	46% 7787-9202 (16989)

0F62

Paris Saint-Germain FC

Invested

$70,799.55

Value

$70.5K

PnL

-$297.52

Record

53%

2066-1862 (3928)

CannaeCTR

Le Havre AC

Invested

$245.75

Value

$293.78

PnL

+$48.03

Record

53%

15876-14060 (29936)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Le Havre AC

Invested

$31.99

Value

$38.31

PnL

+$6.31

Record

50%

24837-24541 (49378)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Le Havre AC

Invested

$36.29

Value

$36.33

PnL

+$0.04

Record

52%

3925-3577 (7502)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Paris Saint-Germain FC

Invested

$29.4

Value

$29.31

PnL

-$0.09

Record

58%

28351-20930 (49281)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Le Havre AC

Invested

$12.6

Value

$10.12

PnL

+$0.97

Record

46%

7787-9202 (16989)

Research grade

NeutralParis Saint-Germain FC at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Paris Saint-Germain FC

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Paris Saint-Germain FC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleParis Saint-Germain FC 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrLe Havre AC 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedLe Havre AC 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Le Havre AC 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Paris Saint-Germain FC wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.5%

97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.50

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.