Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5)
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Le Havre AC (83%) · Le Havre AC at 71¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Le Havre AC
6
Le Havre AC 83%
$2.8K
$50.62
69¢ → 70.5¢
+2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralLe Havre AC at 71%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Le Havre AC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Le Havre ACavg 69¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$32.07 | 50% 24855-24561 (49416) |
 VeryLucky888 | Le Havre ACavg 69¢ | $1.3K | $672.1 | +$14.64 | 58% 41497-30120 (71617) |
 0xheavy888 | Le Havre ACavg 69¢ | $486.8 | $490.33 | +$3.53 | 55% 7053-5658 (12711) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Le Havre ACavg 69¢ | $66.93 | $67.9 | +$0.97 | 50% 33199-32726 (65925) |
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100 | Paris Saint-Germain FCavg 32¢ | $14.53 | $13.62 | -$0.68 | 53% 2145-1905 (4050) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Le Havre ACavg 68¢ | $4.76 | $4.83 | +$0.11 | 52% 3999-3641 (7640) |
Invested
$1,497.13
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$32.07
Record
50%
24855-24561 (49416)
VeryLucky888Invested
$1,343.6
Value
$672.1
PnL
+$14.64
Record
58%
41497-30120 (71617)
0xheavy888Invested
$486.8
Value
$490.33
PnL
+$3.53
Record
55%
7053-5658 (12711)
Invested
$66.93
Value
$67.9
PnL
+$0.97
Record
50%
33199-32726 (65925)
Invested
$14.53
Value
$13.62
PnL
-$0.68
Record
53%
2145-1905 (4050)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$4.76
Value
$4.83
PnL
+$0.11
Record
52%
3999-3641 (7640)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.