Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5)

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Paris Saint-Germain FC (50%) · Paris Saint-Germain FC at 52¢ · $943 held · ends Oct 30

Paris Saint-Germain FC52¢Le Havre AC48¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Paris Saint-Germain FC

Consensus Traders

Paris Saint-Germain FC 50%

Total Value

$942.82

Combined PnL

$3.17

Smart Money Entry

52.9¢ → 51.5¢

-3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralParis Saint-Germain FC at 52%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Paris Saint-Germain FC

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Paris Saint-Germain FC52%

Le Havre AC49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Le Havre AC3 traders

Total Value$410.92

Total Shares848

Combined PnL+$19.3

Paris Saint-Germain FC3 traders

Total Value$531.9

Total Shares1,037

Combined PnL-$16.13

Le Havre AC — 50%Paris Saint-Germain FC — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Paris Saint-Germain FC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleLe Havre AC 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrParis Saint-Germain FC 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedLe Havre AC 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Le Havre AC 50% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CA CannaeCTR	Le Havre ACavg 46.2¢	$378.24	$397.29	+$19.05	53% 15879-14069 (29948)
BB BBQChickenisthebesttt	Paris Saint-Germain FCavg 51¢	$327.66	$330.87	+$3.21	57% 542-402 (944)
DA darkumbreon88	Paris Saint-Germain FCavg 57.8¢	$121.39	$107.07	-$14.32	65% 1700-920 (2620)
38 38791873984189<$100	Paris Saint-Germain FCavg 53.7¢	$98.97	$93.95	-$5.02	46% 7901-9318 (17219)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Le Havre ACavg 48¢	$9.6	$9.6	+$0	38% 377-619 (996)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Le Havre ACavg 43.6¢	$3.66	$4.03	+$0.25	52% 3992-3635 (7627)

CannaeCTR

Le Havre AC

Invested

$378.24

Value

$397.29

PnL

+$19.05

Record

53%

15879-14069 (29948)

BBQChickenisthebesttt

Paris Saint-Germain FC

Invested

$327.66

Value

$330.87

PnL

+$3.21

Record

57%

542-402 (944)

darkumbreon88

Paris Saint-Germain FC

Invested

$121.39

Value

$107.07

PnL

-$14.32

Record

65%

1700-920 (2620)

38791873984189<$100

Paris Saint-Germain FC

Invested

$98.97

Value

$93.95

PnL

-$5.02

Record

46%

7901-9318 (17219)

OddstormCTR<$100

Le Havre AC

Invested

$9.6

Value

$9.6

PnL

+$0

Record

38%

377-619 (996)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Le Havre AC

Invested

$3.66

Value

$4.03

PnL

+$0.25

Record

52%

3992-3635 (7627)

Research grade

NeutralParis Saint-Germain FC at 52%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Paris Saint-Germain FC

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Paris Saint-Germain FC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleLe Havre AC 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrParis Saint-Germain FC 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedLe Havre AC 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Le Havre AC 50% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Paris Saint-Germain FC wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.