Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (81%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-10-30?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 20¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 30
⚠️
Avoid
No
4
No 50%
1 arb excluded
$1.5K
-$8.33
19.9¢ → 19.5¢
-2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 20%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 81%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 19.9¢ | $798.55 | $731.48 | -$11.06 | 58% 40917-29601 (70518) |
0X 0x2Cc8Cc54F50DbB45fE346612821CA93B6E93262B-1780571709186 | Yesavg 80¢ | $551.31 | $554.76 | +$3.45 | 96% 507-21 (528) |
CA CannaeARB<$100 | Noavg 20¢ | $185.6 | $185.6 | +$3.5 | 53% 15769-13947 (29716) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 20¢ | $139.89 | $139.89 | +$3.5 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 80¢ | $45.71 | $45.71 | -$0 | |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 20.1¢ | $25.92 | $25.17 | -$0.75 | 53% 3243-2909 (6152) |
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100 | Yesavg 80¢ | $4.56 | $4.59 | +$0.03 | 53% 2097-1856 (3953) |
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$798.55
Value
$731.48
PnL
-$11.06
Record
58%
40917-29601 (70518)
Invested
$551.31
Value
$554.76
PnL
+$3.45
Record
96%
507-21 (528)
Invested
$185.6
Value
$185.6
PnL
+$3.5
Record
53%
15769-13947 (29716)
Both legs:
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$25.92
Value
$25.17
PnL
-$0.75
Record
53%
3243-2909 (6152)
Invested
$4.56
Value
$4.59
PnL
+$0.03
Record
53%
2097-1856 (3953)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
19.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.