Le Havre AC leading at halftime?

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 100¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 30

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.9K

Combined PnL

$351.98

Smart Money Entry

77.8¢ → 100¢

+28% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares2,654

Combined PnL+$366.26

Yes2 traders

Total Value$55.73

Total Shares278

Combined PnL-$14.28

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 87.8¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$89.71	59% 45380-31733 (77113)
RN1ARB<$100	Noavg 51.5¢	$658.86	$1.4K	+$710.25	54% 56326-48479 (104805)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 10¢	$177.9	$916.17	+$738.27
└ No leg	Noavg 51.5¢	$480.96	$452.95	-$28.02
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 49¢	$342.72	$634.28	+$291.57	50% 33199-32726 (65925)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 48.4¢	$49.55	$50.64	+$1.09	50% 24858-24564 (49422)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Noavg 91¢	$18.2	$18.3	+$0.1	59% 30376-21082 (51458)
poshposh<$100	Noavg 88¢	$16.6	$17.26	+$0.66	59% 9935-6911 (16846)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 91¢	$20.47	$13.43	-$7.05	52% 4004-3650 (7654)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 87¢	$21.08	$12.36	-$8.72	58% 41507-30134 (71641)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Yesavg 10.2¢	$20.47	$5.1	-$15.37	38% 3209-5230 (8439)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$1,661.32

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$89.71

Record

59%

45380-31733 (77113)

RN1ARB<$100

Invested

$658.86

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$710.25

Record

54%

56326-48479 (104805)

Both legs:

Yes$177.910¢+$738.27

No$480.9651.5¢-$28.02

SnakeBall

Invested

$342.72

Value

$634.28

PnL

+$291.57

Record

50%

33199-32726 (65925)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$49.55

Value

$50.64

PnL

+$1.09

Record

50%

24858-24564 (49422)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Invested

$18.2

Value

$18.3

PnL

+$0.1

Record

59%

30376-21082 (51458)

poshposh<$100

Invested

$16.6

Value

$17.26

PnL

+$0.66

Record

59%

9935-6911 (16846)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$20.47

Value

$13.43

PnL

-$7.05

Record

52%

4004-3650 (7654)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$21.08

Value

$12.36

PnL

-$8.72

Record

58%

41507-30134 (71641)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.47

Value

$5.1

PnL

-$15.37

Record

38%

3209-5230 (8439)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.