Paris Saint-Germain FC leading at halftime?

6 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (46%) · Yes at 100¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 30

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 46%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.0K

Combined PnL

-$87.86

Smart Money Entry

83.4¢ → 100¢

+20% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 13 top traders (46%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$4.1K

Total Shares4,592

Combined PnL-$592.54

No7 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares4,054

Combined PnL+$504.67

Yes — 46%No — 54%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 89.8¢	$2.6K	$1.9K	-$672.56	50% 24858-24564 (49422)
ZX zxc368	Yesavg 99.9¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$0.66	98% 12939-204 (13143)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Noavg 61.9¢	$960.33	$1.3K	+$342.54	50% 33199-32726 (65925)
FO Forecastication2	Yesavg 57.9¢	$519.66	$466.72	-$52.94	50% 6970-6970 (13940)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Noavg 25.3¢	$529.26	$344.76	-$184.5	59% 45380-31733 (77113)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 66.4¢	$147.85	$201.36	+$53.51
└ No leg	Noavg 25.3¢	$381.41	$143.4	-$238.01
OM omnibus-076daa	Yesavg 16¢	$25.43	$138.61	+$113.18	49% 18995-19405 (38400)
poshposh	Yesavg 86¢	$131.41	$129.21	-$2.2	59% 9935-6911 (16846)
TO topdogbigboi	Yesavg 65.9¢	$82.58	$103.89	+$21.31	38% 3209-5230 (8439)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR<$100	Noavg 42¢	$84	$84	+$1	54% 4856-4082 (8938)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 42¢	$315	$71.25	+$333.75	58% 41507-30134 (71641)
RN1CTR<$100	Noavg 8.4¢	$88.23	$41.87	-$46.36	54% 56326-48479 (104805)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR	Noavg 42.3¢	$143.73	$32.3	-$111.43	58% 28421-20980 (49401)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 47.9¢	$11.02	$11.16	+$0.13	52% 4004-3650 (7654)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Noavg 10.5¢	$15.03	$0.07	-$14.96	49% 12488-12848 (25336)

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$2,583.72

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$672.56

Record

50%

24858-24564 (49422)

zxc368

Yes

Invested

$1,328.56

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$0.66

Record

98%

12939-204 (13143)

SnakeBallCTR

Invested

$960.33

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$342.54

Record

50%

33199-32726 (65925)

Forecastication2

Yes

Invested

$519.66

Value

$466.72

PnL

-$52.94

Record

50%

6970-6970 (13940)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Invested

$529.26

Value

$344.76

PnL

-$184.5

Record

59%

45380-31733 (77113)

Both legs:

Yes$147.8566.4¢+$53.51

No$381.4125.3¢-$238.01

omnibus-076daa

Yes

Invested

$25.43

Value

$138.61

PnL

+$113.18

Record

49%

18995-19405 (38400)

poshposh

Yes

Invested

$131.41

Value

$129.21

PnL

-$2.2

Record

59%

9935-6911 (16846)

topdogbigboi

Yes

Invested

$82.58

Value

$103.89

PnL

+$21.31

Record

38%

3209-5230 (8439)

WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR<$100

Invested

$84

Value

$84

PnL

+$1

Record

54%

4856-4082 (8938)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$315

Value

$71.25

PnL

+$333.75

Record

58%

41507-30134 (71641)

RN1CTR<$100

Invested

$88.23

Value

$41.87

PnL

-$46.36

Record

54%

56326-48479 (104805)

LeLynxMalynxCTR

Invested

$143.73

Value

$32.3

PnL

-$111.43

Record

58%

28421-20980 (49401)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$11.02

Value

$11.16

PnL

+$0.13

Record

52%

4004-3650 (7654)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Invested

$15.03

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$14.96

Record

49%

12488-12848 (25336)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 13 top traders (46%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.