Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (92%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Le Havre AC win on 2026-10-30?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 8.5¢ · $221 held · ends Oct 30

Yes9¢No91¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 80%

Total Value

$221.2

Combined PnL

$9.41

Smart Money Entry

8.3¢ → 8.5¢

+3% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 9%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 92%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes9%

No92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$175.7

Total Shares1,952

Combined PnL+$9.41

No1 trader

Total Value$45.5

Total Shares50

Combined PnL+$0

Yes — 80%No — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$87	$87	+$0	50% 24840-24547 (49387)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 7.4¢	$61.61	$74.93	+$9.16	58% 41458-30076 (71534)
38 38791873984189<$100	Noavg 91¢	$45.5	$45.5	+$0	46% 7844-9262 (17106)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 8.3¢	$11.49	$12.42	+$0.24	52% 3955-3596 (7551)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$1.35	$1.35	+$0	38% 370-614 (984)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$87

Value

$87

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

24840-24547 (49387)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$61.61

Value

$74.93

PnL

+$9.16

Record

58%

41458-30076 (71534)

38791873984189<$100

Invested

$45.5

Value

$45.5

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

7844-9262 (17106)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.49

Value

$12.42

PnL

+$0.24

Record

52%

3955-3596 (7551)

OddstormCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.35

Value

$1.35

PnL

+$0

Record

38%

370-614 (984)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 9%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 92%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance9.9%

8.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$907.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

1007.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.